With 10 games played for the Leafs, the temptation is very strong to look at results and draw conclusions, but the only thing wonkier than the first 10 games of the season is the last 10 or any other set of 10. At the league level, when each team has played close to 10 games, the averages settle in to something very close to where they will be at season's end. We're not there yet, there's only been 153 games played, and goals are up by a hair, save % down by the same hair, and the power-play opportunities average is still a tiny bit higher than recent years. League-wide power-play and penalty-kill success percentages are right on the recent values.
At the team level, none of that is true. Teams can be and usually are all over the map compared to where they will end up. In terms of the standings, a truly bad team that has weaknesses in all areas is not going to win many games, so there's the San Jose Sharks with a .273 Points% and Chicago at .350. But Nashville isn't going to stay at .389 and the Oilers aren't a .450 team.
There's obviously good teams doing well early like the Rangers and the Stars. But are the Flames really a .611 team? It's easier for a good team to do poorly for a stretch than it is for the opposite to happen. You need some base level of skater and goaltending quality to cash in on lucky bounces, shooting heaters and goalies that stop everything for a random month. So a team of middling quality like the Flames are much more likely to rise up and be hot for a while. Meanwhile the teams clustered in the middle can be anything.
Living in the realm of good and bad all mixed together is a boon to Leafs fans as the team sits at .550. It's easier to sell the doom scenario. It's always a harder sell to say, no actually this team is extremely good. Which they are.
Some of them are not quite as good as they seem right now, however.
Fortune's Favourites
Bobby McMann has three goals on 0.73 Expected Goals so far at even strength in 108 minutes. That's close to the amount he shot over expected in all of last year. McMann has, in his brief career, always been an above average shooter with below average shot choices, but he's not carrying on scoring at this pace. His secret weapon has been an extremely high shot rate – rare in a player who isn't an elite top-liner. But he's been shooting at a lower rate so far this year, and getting very lucky on worse than usual shot choices.
Matt Knies has five goals on 3.17 expected at even strength, so he's been very good and touched by fortune just a bit. He's been so good without the puck that good fortune seems deserved. However, he has the lowest shot rate of any of the Leafs with over 10 minutes on the power play and just isn't well suited to that role.
Morgan Rielly has three goals on 0.8 Expected at even-strength, putting him in the McMann class for good fortune.
Honourable mention goes to the most recent second line: John Tavares, William Nylander and Max Pacioretty. They're all scoring a titch over expected – something that is a massive difference for Pacioretty to last season and not typical of Tavares lately.
No one has good fortune on the power play, and everyone is scoring under expected there.
Fortune's Fools
Auston Matthews is getting a lesson in humility from the universe this season so far. He has the worst Goals over Expected result at even strength on the team. With only two goals on 3.67 expected, it's safe to say this is not his usual result considering he's one of the best shooters in the NHL. In Winnipeg, he was shooting some from distance, but don't go thinking his problem is shot location – he's actually better than usual this year. He's also shooting more than usual (which is good, I have no idea why anyone wants shooters on his line). He's the dominant positive force on the Leafs offensively – so much better than every other player, he is amazing.
He hasn't got the worst results on the power play, though, just third worst with one goal on 1.83 Expected which is the highest Expected number after John Tavares. Not everything going on with the power play is structural. Some of it is just goals lagging behind where they "should" be. But you know goals come in a random distribution not a regular drip, drip don't you?
David Kämpf and Steven Lorentz have very good Expected Goals Against and are on the ice for a lot more actual goals scored. The deadly combination of only 10 games and low minutes played means you're more likely to be the fool or to live in the sunshine when you don't deserve it.
Sometimes you deserve your fate
Max Domi has no goals at a tiny 0.4 Expected, but his problem is of his own making. He is shooting even less than is normal for him, and from very poor locations even judging by the very low bar you need to set for him. His shooting is normally too poor for the top six, and so far this year, it's about half as effective as usual. That's really not even in the viable NHLer range.
I don't expect Domi to do much with his own shot, but he's been an actual detriment in the sense that he's giving the puck away for such a tiny chance at a goal, he really should keep it and pass it. He has assists, though, so it's going to remain a controversial opinion that he's performing poorly even by his own career norms. His on-ice results are dreadful, which you can't lay entirely at his door, but he's not innocent either. He has had a difficult job of playing wing to Nylander at centre, switching that out and then going to a non-top-six line, but he has played one solid game out of 10 so far.
Nick Robertson is this year's big success player where every time he does anything at all on the ice he's lauded. But he's shooting very little from very poor locations and has one goal on 0.91 Expected. It wasn't actually shocking that it took so long for him to score. It was exactly on the money for how he was playing. He also has the lowest Expected Goals of any player on the power play. Having said all that, his overall shooting is four times better than Domi's. And having said that, shooting is supposed to be his reason to be in the NHL.
William Nylander is just himself. He's shooting, scoring, and doing everything else on the ice exactly as he always does, and he's got the closest thing to success on the power play on anyone. This is likely true for Mitch Marner too, but I'm saving him for the day more meaningful isolated on-ice impacts are available.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson is also just rolling along doing the sort of shooting that's fine for a defenceman. His personal shooting on the power play is pretty indistinguishable from Morgan Rielly's. They look each as good as the other there in general.
All Expected Goals numbers are from Evolving Hockey and are not rated per 60 minutes. I used HockeyViz to check on shot location for a few people.
There's a lot more to hockey than shooting and goals, and in time the measures of on-ice impact will tell us just how good Marner is this year and if some of the bad shooters are making up for it elsewhere. It will also be the first meaningful look at Chris Tanev on the team.
Remember, there is no "but" after "it's early" and raw points numbers always lie.
