The Maple Leafs have the 23rd overall pick for Friday's first round of the NHL Draft. For now, anyway. What can you get with that? Not Tij Iginla, but maybe someone very good.

Bob McKenzie forecasts you'll get someone like

You can find his full draft list here:

McKenzie’s Final Draft Ranking: Many attractive and diverse options after Celebrini - TSN.ca
This year’s final ranking, from No. 2 on, is much more challenging to assemble because of two factors - many more divergent opinions and variance on even the top 10 picks and two Russians forcing their way into the conversation in the upper echelon.
TSNBob McKenzie

History says you can get someone like:

  • Gabe Perreault, who the Rangers drafted last year. He's at Boston College now.
  • In 2022, the Blues took Jimmy Snuggerud who played with Matt Knies in Minnesota and was very good there.
  • The Stars hit it big in 2021 with Wyatt Johnston. He's already a Star, and could be a star too someday. He already has over 100 NHL points
  • In 2020, the Flyers took Tyson Foerster, and he was a full time NHLer this year with 20 goals. That's a good result.
  • The Islanders took Simon Holmstrom in 2019, and he had 15 goals for the Islanders this year in his first full NHL season. Also a good result.
  • The Ducks picked Isac Lundestrom in 2018, and he seems to have been plunked into the NHL right after the draft, splitting time in the AHL as well. He's an RFA with arbitration rights and seems like a not very successful fourth-liner
  • Pierre-Olivier Joseph was take by Arizona in 2017. He went back to Pittsburgh in the Phil Kessel trade in 2019, and he's played there since. He didn't have a good season, but he seems to be a third-pair defender.
  • In 2016, the Panthers took Henrik Borgstom. He's a big guy, so that means he was put in the NHL quickly – 2017 for his cup of coffee and then four more tries on three teams. He's in the SHL now.
  • Vancouver picked Brock Boeser in 2015 and still have him. The subject of trade rumours constantly because he's a little bit overpaid for his value. He had a great season this year, and that's cooled off, but wait until next when he's UFA. A very good result, though.
  • Colorado missed on Conner Bleackley in 2014. They subsequently cleared out their scouting staff too. He's currently in the ECHL and doesn't seem to be doing all that well. Arizona traded for his rights in 2016, and by not offering him a contract were able to get a compensatory second-round pick. Bleackley was then re-drafted in 2016 by St. Louis 144th overall.
  • In 2013, the Capitals took Andre Burakovsky. He's played for three teams over his career beginning in 2014 and people still mistake him for German or Austrian. He's currently with the Kraken.
  • The Panthers took Mike Matheson in 2012. He played for them until 2020, spent two years in Pittsburgh, and when his former agent took over the Habs, he traded for him. He's an okay mid-pairing defender about to hit his declining years.
  • In 2011, the Penguins took Joe Morrow, who played a few not very good NHL seasons. He's playing in the English hockey league now.
  • Mark Pysyk, frequent star of Leafs fans defence shopping, was taken by Buffalo in 2010. He played in Buffalo, Florida, Dallas and Detroit, but since 2022, he's played a very limited number of AHL games after an injury.
  • In 2009, the Flames took Tim Erixon who refused to sign with them, so they traded him to the Rangers. If you remember his 15 games with the Leafs in 2014-2015, you win a prize. He retired in 2022.
  • In 2008, the Wild took Tyler Cuma who played in the Alps and Austrian leagues this season. He has one NHL game played. He's from Toronto and has been playing in various Austrian locations for a decade. Good life for him. Not a great pick for the Wild.

And if you want to time travel some more, you can find more information at CapFriendly (if you hurry before July) or at Hockey Reference. Puckpedia seems to only go back to 2009 for all players.

Anecdotally, the forwards worked out more often than the defencemen. But that's just how the draft works in general. Some great results, some very big misses.

And if the Leafs don't trade this pick, we'll have someone who could be anything on the spectrum of possible outcomes to obsess over for years before we know for sure.

NHL Draft