2024 T25U25: Timofei Obvintsev is #23

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The Leafs' youngest goalie prospect enters his first T25 at spot 23, a fairly traditional goalie entrance. While he was just drafted, he is already coming up on age 20.

Timofei Obvintsev	Vitals
Age as of July 1	19.48
Position	G
Height	6'4"
Weight (lbs)	178
Shoots	L
Draft Year	2024
Draft Number	157

The Player

Obvintsev is from Yekaterinburg in eastern Russia. It's an old city east of the Ural mountains not quite in Siberia, and also one of the larger cities in Russia with a high standard of living. Unlike Peksa, Obvintsev grew up in a good sized metropolis, but like Peksa, he didn't find his best opportunity in his home club, Avtomobilist.

Obvintsev moved to the CSKA system in Moscow as a teenager – so the same time Peksa was struggling to find a spot before he settled in Kazaon, Obvintsev was joining one of the premier hockey schools in Russia. Obviously the CSKA scouts saw some potential there.

There is one comprehensive article on the internet on Obvintsev, and it's handy for you to read:

The key takeaway is that Obvintsev has an unusual or "hybrid" style that is more instinctive. The heading "Live by the Instinct, Die by the Instinct" is instructive in and of itself, though.

While there are some advantages to Obvintsev's playing style – and the scouts that rave about him seem to really like that he has it – there are downsides. One of the advantages of the butterfly is you are playing the percentages. Low and medium danger shots against them are less likely to beat them, when it's done correctly. You cut down the angles and take up as much of the net as possible so only the best shots or scoring chances beat them.

Just picture Joe Woll, and you know what that paragraph means regarding the benefits of a traditional style married to positional skill.

So Obvintsev's playing style can help him make more difficult saves that he wouldn't if he was a strict butterfly guy, but he also lets in some ugly/weird ones that he shouldn't. If you told me his nickname was ковбой, I'd believe it, because he can be a real wild cowboy in everything he does. It makes him very entertaining, but if you're cheering for the team he plays for then he may give you a few heart attacks.

There's a lot more detail in that post, so do read it, but this whole idea is making me raise my eyebrows. I'm most fascinated by his mental process. How does he have and maintain self-confidence if his process is this mystical? I think I'm by nature and by conditioning the wrong person to understand this man.

The Votes

I didn't rank Obvintsev because for goalies, as discussed with Peksa, draft round isn't a tell, and all of them are equally unlikely to be meaningful prospects. I didn't find much in his "surf the vibes" style to make me feel confident in him as an individual.

Voter	Vote
Cathy	NA
Brian	23
Species	23
Adam	19
Hardev	23
dhammm	NA
Cameron S	21
Hound Line	17
brysplace	18
Catch-67	NA
Sclodiggity	20
shinson93	21
The Bag	24
Zone Entry	23
Weighted Average	22.14
Highest Vote	17
Lowest Vote	24

All goalies are hard to predict. That doesn't equal being hard to understand. It's tough with someone playing in Russian junior to get a good feel for them because it's not like we, as well as thousands of others, can watch every game like with the goalies in the AHL. That lack of information is not the same thing as there being no way to know about a goalie's future.

All of these disparate ideas: we often don't see goalie prospects in meaningful games; goalies don't necessarily repeat their save % performance year-over-year; save % itself is a team-influenced number; there is no better measure for most goalies; gleaning meaningful information from just watching is a skill most fans don't have, get conflated into that thought-ending cliché, "Goalies are Voodoo."

This slogan is the anti-idea behind the routine chorus of demands for any goalie at all to be played in the NHL. You never know! Goalies are Voodoo!! So just give any goalie some starts, and find the hidden super secret starter of the future. Just try him!!

Well, no. We can know. We might not, but NHL teams absolutely can get a broad read on goalies, and even less broad and more granular distinctions can be made about their own players and prospects. Any goalie can't be a superstar. The few that can are usually pretty obvious and are rarely considered long-term projects on draft day.

The optimistic takes on Obvintsev rest on CSKA seeing potential, the Leafs seeing it, and it's perfectly valid to take their word for it. I do. I just don't count on that potential being very large. But a skilled and considered scouting of Obvintsev as he progresses as a prospect is going to be very revealing. Right now, he's surfing the vibes.

The Opinions

dhammm: I am not sure how to draft a goalie besides earmarking one pick in the 4th-7th rounds each year for someone NCAA bound, SHL bound, or in Russia, and this is just such a pick. Trust the system, etc., but he’s still only played in the MHL. He’ll need to do something at the pro level before I consider bumping him into my top 25.

brysplace: He's a goalie too! A shiny new future series-stealer and playoff MVP has joined the organization. I had him below Peksa because of the absence of professional success in his young career, but here's hoping he makes a name for himself soon so we can all start saying obviously Obvintsev when asked who the Leafs’ starter will be.

Brigstew: He was an overage goalie who has barely played in the MHL the past two seasons because he was the third string goalie, albeit on one of the top teams in that league. It’s still the MHL, which has a wildly inconsistent quality of competition. I liked his scouting reports enough to rank him at all, but that’s as far as I go until there’s more data on him.

Hound Line: Scouting reports all say the same thing: he plays a hybrid style, has good instincts, is an explosive athlete but is very raw. Compared to the other goalies, he hasn’t had the higher level success of Hildeby or Akhtyamov but also hasn’t had a ranking tanking season like Peksa had last year. Ultimately, I’m higher on him than most (#17) because of the tools and because this T25U25 group is pretty shallow on players that can do more than eat fourth line minutes.

Sclodiggity: I don’t make the rules but unknown goalies get ranked in the 20-25 range by default. Being young and a goalie means anything can change but the general opinion of him was that he was a legitimate mid-round draft pick with a decent scouting report. Until we see him in a higher league, he’s kinda just a name with made up potential.

shinson93: 20-25 is where I put my goalie “hope” votes, so here he is.

Hardev: The lack of games played is always tough for goalies. I ranked him mostly through what Brigs compiled for us and determining he was decent enough to be given a shot. He’s raw, but he’s mobile and tall. We’ve seen with goalies it’s possible to both reign a wild goalie in, I guess sort of like Samsonov. Or have a conservative goalie build some dynamism, where Woll was very static early on and while he’s not Jack Campbell explosive, he’s better than before. For Obvintsev, we’ll see how he matures.

Cameron S: Decent numbers in limited MHL games, but is far away in development, meaning he has a higher ceiling and lower floor than some guys ranked behind him.

The Bag: Read everything I said about Peksa and then bear in mind that Obvintsev has very few MHL starts. He could be a real goalie but no one knows just yet (and he probably won’t be).

Your turn. What are you feeling about the newest goalie?

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