With the playoffs about to begin in Boston, it’s time to look back for the last time at the regular season result each team put up. I’ve used mostly Offside Review and a few other sites sprinkled in to compile this. The basics are direct from NHL.com, and that’s where I’ll begin.
Regular Season Results Overview
| Stat | Toronto | Boston |
|---|
| Points | 100 | 107 |
| Win/Loss | 46-28-8 | 49-29-9 |
| ROW | 46 | 47 |
| RW | 40 | 38 |
| Goals For | 286 | 259 |
| Goals Against | 251 | 215 |
| Differential | 35 | 44 |
The view now moves to five-on-five play, and first is the big picture, followed by the breakdown in for and against figures.
5-on-5 Results Overview
| Stat | Toronto | Boston |
|---|
| TOI | 4083 | 3992 |
| Goals For % | 54.79 | 55.12 |
| Corsi For % (Score Adjusted) | 52.2 | 53.85 |
| Expected Goals For % | 50.81 | 52.88 |
5-on-5 Details
| Stat | Toronto | Boston |
|---|
| GF/60 | 3.03 | 2.34 |
| CF/60 | 65.54 | 59.20 |
| xGF/60 | 2.74 | 2.59 |
| GA/60 | 2.50 | 1.91 |
| CA/60 | 60.01 | 50.73 |
| xGA/60 | 2.66 | 2.30 |
Special teams are next, with the power play by shots (Corsi) and Expected Goals. There’s no score adjusting here. The difference between Goals and Expected Goals is much more meaningful than success percentage, but Corsi For rate is more likely to predict results. In less than 400 minutes of time on ice for both teams, there’s even more chance here than there is at five-on-five that goal scoring rates are being affected by random variance.
Power Play
| Stat | Toronto | Boston |
|---|
| TOI | 354 | 389 |
| CF/60 | 112.47 | 98.69 |
| xGF/60 | 9.39 | 7.09 |
| GF/60 | 7.62 | 9.59 |
The penalty kill is very heavily influenced by goaltending, but a look at the pace of shots allowed can tell you a little about the skaters on the ice. The shorthanded Goals For per 60 minutes is included for amusement, since it’s never going to amount to meaningful numbers of goals scored.
Penalty Kill
| Stat | Toronto | Boston |
|---|
| TOI | 350 | 389 |
| GA/60 | 6.86 | 7.40 |
| CA/60 | 94.30 | 91.99 |
| xGA/60 | 6.13 | 6.65 |
| GF/60 | 0.86 | 0.92 |
The individual results are next, and for raw all-situations points, I’ve included the top 10 for each team.
Top Ten Points Scorers
| Toronto | Boxcars | Primary Points | Boston | Boxcars | Primary Points |
|---|
| MITCHELL MARNER | 26-68-94 | 78 | BRAD MARCHAND | 36-64-100 | 71 |
| JOHN TAVARES | 47-41-88 | 73 | DAVID PASTRNAK | 38-42-80 | 65 |
| AUSTON MATTHEWS | 37-36-73 | 60 | PATRICE BERGERON | 31-47-78 | 57 |
| MORGAN RIELLY | 20-51-71 | 45 | DAVID KREJCI | 20-53-73 | 51 |
| KASPERI KAPANEN | 20-24-44 | 32 | TOREY KRUG | 6-47-53 | 31 |
| NAZEM KADRI | 16-28-44 | 31 | JAKE DEBRUSK | 27-15-42 | 35 |
| ANDREAS JOHNSSON | 20-22-42 | 32 | DANTON HEINEN | 11-23-34 | 29 |
| ZACH HYMAN | 21-19-40 | 32 | CHARLIE MCAVOY | 7-21-28 | 20 |
| PATRICK MARLEAU | 16-19-35 | 29 | SEAN KURALY | 8-13-21 | 16 |
| JAKE GARDINER | 3-28-31 | 16 | DAVID BACKES | 7-13-20 | 12 |
Five-on-five on-ice performance is all players who played at least 500 minutes, and just Expected Goals percentage is shown.
5-on-5 Expected Goals %
| Toronto | xGF% | Boston | xGF% |
|---|
| WILLIAM NYLANDER | 54.51 | PATRICE BERGERON | 57.19 |
| ZACH HYMAN | 53.70 | BRAD MARCHAND | 55.09 |
| JOHN TAVARES | 52.96 | DANTON HEINEN | 54.98 |
| JAKE MUZZIN | 52.78 | DAVID PASTRNAK | 54.96 |
| JAKE GARDINER | 52.73 | JAKE DEBRUSK | 54.95 |
| MITCHELL MARNER | 52.32 | CHARLIE MCAVOY | 54.67 |
| IGOR OZHIGANOV | 51.21 | BRANDON CARLO | 54.64 |
| NIKITA ZAITSEV | 51.13 | DAVID KREJCI | 54.49 |
| AUSTON MATTHEWS | 50.63 | DAVID BACKES | 54.39 |
| TRAVIS DERMOTT | 50.59 | ZDENO CHARA | 54.31 |
| KASPERI KAPANEN | 50.55 | TOREY KRUG | 53.76 |
| ANDREAS JOHNSSON | 50.26 | NOEL ACCIARI | 51.82 |
| NAZEM KADRI | 50.24 | SEAN KURALY | 51.75 |
| MORGAN RIELLY | 50.09 | MATT GRZELCYK | 51.31 |
| FREDERIK GAUTHIER | 49.51 | CHRIS WAGNER | 50.02 |
| RON HAINSEY | 48.95 | JOAKIM NORDSTROM | 49.96 |
| CONNOR BROWN | 48.84 | KEVAN MILLER | 49.90 |
| PATRICK MARLEAU | 47.67 | JOHN MOORE | 46.78 |
For power play scoring, everyone who has at least one point is included. Boston splits the ice time between their two units at approximately 65% to 35% (judging by the HockeyViz graphic). Toronto is approximately 60% to 40%, and they have a much more stable set of players who make up the units.
Power Play Points
| Toronto | Power Play Boxcars | Boston | Power Play Boxcars |
|---|
| MITCHELL MARNER | 3-18-21 | BRAD MARCHAND | 10-22-32 |
| AUSTON MATTHEWS | 12-8-20 | DAVID PASTRNAK | 17-13-30 |
| MORGAN RIELLY | 3-16-19 | TOREY KRUG | 2-28-30 |
| JOHN TAVARES | 10-8-18 | PATRICE BERGERON | 9-15-24 |
| NAZEM KADRI | 4-9-13 | DAVID KREJCI | 5-9-14 |
| PATRICK MARLEAU | 3-5-8 | JAKE DEBRUSK | 8-3-11 |
| ANDREAS JOHNSSON | 3-3-6 | DANTON HEINEN | 1-6-7 |
| JAKE GARDINER | 0-6-6 | DAVID BACKES | 2-5-7 |
| WILLIAM NYLANDER | 1-5-6 | MATT GRZELCYK | 0-5-5 |
| TYLER ENNIS | 2-3-5 | JOHN MOORE | 2-1-3 |
| JAKE MUZZIN | 1-2-3 | RYAN DONATO | 3-0-3 |
| KASPERI KAPANEN | 1-2-3 | STEVEN KAMPFER | 1-1-2 |
| - | | ZDENO CHARA | 0-2-2 |
| - | | CHARLIE COYLE | 0-1-1 |
| - | | CHARLIE MCAVOY | 1-0-1 |
| - | | JAKOB FORSBACKA KARLSSON | 0-1-1 |
| - | | PETER CEHLARIK | 1-0-1 |
And lastly is the starting goalie comparison. I’m assuming the Bruins will not play Jaroslav Halak, even though his results are better. This information is from Moneypuck.com
Starting Goalies
| Stat | Frederik Andersen | Tuukka Rask |
|---|
| Expected Save % | 95.11 | 95.28 |
| Save % on Unblocked Shots | 94.45 | 95.18 |
| Save % Above Expected | 0.333 | -0.093 |
