2018 Top 25 Under 25: #14 Calle Rosén has risen three places

Calle Rosén’s first season in North America started sour, but finished sweet. After signing an entry level deal with the Leafs in May 2017, and garnering interest from as many as 15 NHL teams, Rosén expected to be in the NHL last year. He said it himself, in a quote given to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet last fall:

“I’m going into this camp thinking I’m ready to play,” he said. “That’s what I’m all in for. I don’t see the AHL right now. I just see an NHL spot for me. That’s what I’m aiming for.”

It didn’t work out that way. To start the year, he was in a three-way competition with Andreas Borgman and Martin Marincin for the third-pairing left-defenseman spot on the Leafs. He lost that to Borgman, which was a mild surprise to me, given Rosén’s age advantage and his more impressive track record to that point.

However, it’d be hard to say it wasn’t deserved. Rosén definitely appeared shaky at times, even if his impressive skills were on display too. I recall noting that Rosén’s skating stood out, even at the NHL level. However, he seemed a little light weight in board battles and shot into shin pads a lot. He was an aggressive player, not in the sense of physical play, but in that he was very willing to trust his wheels and jump into the play for offense. Borgman seemed more steady relative to Rosén, and by the end of the first week of the season, there was no backlash to the decision to send Rosén down.

As a successful pro player in Sweden, being demoted to the AHL was likely a blow to Rosén’s ego. I wouldn’t have blamed him if he had asked the Leafs for a mutual termination of his contract and decided to go back home, where he would have a long and prosperous career. However, he stayed, and was ultimately a key part of a dominant Calder Cup champion team.

On the Marlies, Rosén was paired with Vincent LoVerde, in a classic rover/stay-at-home pairing. Throughout the regular season, they were nominally the third pair, though the Marlies were rather egalitarian with ice time among defensemen. He also wasn’t terribly sheltered through competition.

In this role, Rosén and LoVerde generally succeeded. Rosén carried his aggressive and direct style with him to the AHL. He was 9th among AHL defenceman in shots per game (among defencemen who played more than 25 games), and while we lack the 5v5 / 5v4 split there, it’s not hard to believe that his shot rate is among the league leaders at both.

This is a double-edged sword. Defencemen who shoot a lot are generally involved with the play offensively and are providing value. On the other hand, there are generally more efficient shots to be had than where defencemen usually shoot from, and being too shot happy isn’t good for the team. Our Marlies reporters feel that Rosen improved in this respect throughout the year, learning when to shoot and when to move the puck to the Marlies’ armada of talented forwards. Rosen also played a role on the power play, as you would expect from someone with his skillset.

So that’s a decent amount about his role and style of play... let’s get into the numbers a little bit. His point production on the whole was good but not great. His 0.24 primary points per game was 66th among AHL defencemen with over 25 games. For reference, Travis Dermott was 20th with 0.36 P1/GP, and Justin Holl was 69th with 0.23 P1/GP.

However, if we look only at 5v5 production, Rosén looks far less impressive. His 0.11 P1/GP at 5v5 ranks 132nd among AHL defencemen. Unfortunately we can’t examine things like personal and on-ice shooting percentage at even strength to gauge whether he was helped or hurt by variance, so take these stats for what they’re worth. It’s also worth noting that the rank makes him seem worse than he is because the margins are so fine between players... if he recorded two more primary points, he would rocket up to 88th on the list.

Obviously, we can’t credit him with points he didn’t score, but it goes to show that the differences in scoring between non-elite AHL defencemen are quite small. The safest takeaway from this is that at 5v5, Rosen wasn’t a great driver of individual offense (the same result holds if you look at all points as opposed to primary points). Guys who were elite offensively include Travis Dermott and Justin Holl, who each rank in the top 25 in the AHL in primary points per game and points per game. Martin Marincin shows up in the top 25 for points per game as well.

This is a good time to mention that Dermott, Justin Holl, and Marincin were the three best Marlies defencemen last season, in some order.

Anyways, back to Rosén. His GF% was 7% lower than the Marlies without him on the ice, though it was still above 50%. Again, we lack the contextual stats to see if he was legitimately worse than the Marlies on average, or if he was on the wrong side of variance, so take this stat as purely descriptive. All of this goes to say that the stats we have indicate that Rosén topped out as a solid but unspectacular AHL defenceman during the regular season.

At his age (now 24), this seemingly indicates that his upside is capped to some degree. He could probably survive on the third pairing of a NHL team, especially one that needs a guy to man the point on their second power play unit. The Leafs are not really such a team, and at even strength, nothing about Rosén’s overall level screams out that he’s much more than replacement level in the NHL. Certainly, he has some tantalizing skills, as his skating ability is something I’d cut 10 years off my life span to possess. However, his skills don’t pay the bills, at least, not to a degree where he shines above the rest of the Leafs third pair LD options.

Personally, I think Borgman and Marincin have shown more for that role, saying nothing of the unassailable trio of Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner, and Dermott who are all locks in the Leafs lineup. The fact that Rosén plays on the power play but not the penalty kill also works against him here, as the Leafs have four players ahead of him in the power play depth chart (Rielly, Gardiner, Dermott, Zaitsev).

If you think Rosén has what it takes to be an NHLer, you do have some ammunition for your argument in the form of his Calder Cup run. In the playoffs, Sheldon Keefe trusted Rosén and LoVerde with increased roles as he started to shelter Timothy Liljegren more. Rosén in particular rewarded him with 11 points in 16 playoff games, and generally improved all-around play according to our Marlies reporters.

While you never want to make judgements based on a tiny sample (especially one where a defenceman shoots 10%), 16 games is not an insignificant part of an AHL season and Rosen’s success there may be a sign that he’s managed the adjustment process and is turning on the jets. The year started with a setback, but ended with Rosén as one of the most important players on a championship team. We’ll see if he can continue it into this year’s training camp, where once again, he’ll be in a dogfight for a spot on the Leafs.

Calle Rosén via Elite Prospects

My Vote

I put him at 16 on my list. Essentially, I see him as on the lower end of the Marlies players who could probably step in to the NHL now, and below a few prospects whose upside I believe in. I think any vote in the 13-17 range is pretty justifiable, and that’s where he was on everyone’s ballot.

Katya’s thoughts:

Calle Rosén seems stuck in a tough situation to me. As far as we know, his NHL contract has no European out clause, which Igor Ozhiganov’s does have. And he was just young enough to require a two-year ELC when he signed. So unlike, Miro Aaltonen, he can’t just go back to where he was and pick up his European career where he left off.

And if the Marlies had not been a playoff team, or had been swept out in the first round, that might be the sum of my thoughts on him, that we should expect to see him on unconditional waivers prior to a quick trip back to Växjö’s blueline or maybe the KHL. Without the out clause, he can’t trigger this himself; he has to get the Leafs to agree to it.

But those playoffs did happen, and his epic period of shooting way too much and never scoring, or even getting many assists out of it, came to a glorious conclusion with some great games against the toughest competition the AHL has. He passed the eye-test on defensive zone play as well. He might make an NHL roster yet, if his training camp is strong.

Where on the Leafs is there space for a left-shooting defender, however? Even if he plays right side a lot of the time, he’s got to leap back over Andreas Borgman, Martin Marincin, Connor Carrick and maybe Ron Hainsey to get into the NHL. He’s a better skater than all of those guys. He’s got better offensive gifts than all of them but Borgman (maybe). But I keep remembering Staffan Kronwall, the last almost-but-not-quite NHL defender the Marlies had, and he was (and is) even better, and he couldn’t do it.