2018 Top 25 Under 25: Auston Matthews is the King

Auston Matthews is 20 years old, and he is already easily the best Leaf since Mats Sundin. Frankly, it’s not close. In a weird way, I think Matthews might be undervalued among NHL fans. Many of them think that he’s hyped up beyond what he should be, a function of being on the Leafs.

They’re wrong.

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Yes, Auston Matthews Really Is That Good

Auston Matthews is the best even-strength goalscorer in the league. Frankly, it’s not close. In a market that has overhyped its share of players, we can say without exaggeration that in this attribute, he is without peer.

The raw numbers pop out. In his rookie year, he scored 32 even strength goals, leading the league. Sidney Crosby, Jeff Skinner, and Vladimir Tarasenko tied for second with 30. Last season, Matthews scored 29 even strength goals in 62 games. Connor McDavid led the league with 35. It’s safe to say that with a full bill of health, Matthews would likely have challenged for the title again.

The numbers only get more impressive when you add further context. When you normalize for ice time, Matthews goal scoring at even strength remains at the top of the league over the past two seasons, with a staggering 1.58 goals per 60 minutes (G/60). The next highest over the same time span was Sonny Milano, who ‘only’ scored 1.36 G/60, and he just barely makes my cutoff of 500 5v5 minutes over the last two years. The difference between Matthews and Brad Marchand, who ranks 14th with 1.12 G/60 is about the same as the difference between Marchand and Nick Bonino, who scores 0.66 G/60. That puts Bonino at 148th among forwards, making him a good third liner in terms of goal scoring.

If you’re going to be the best at some hockey related skill, goal scoring is probably the best one to choose. Accordingly, Matthews led the league in 5v5 primary points per 60, and was 3rd in 5v5 points per 60, behind only Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon.

At 20, he is already one of the absolute best players in the world at even strength scoring and with how often he shoots, the locations he shoots from, and his above average shot, he’s about as solid a bet to continue his elite scoring as anyone. He’ll also be benefiting from an improving William Nylander next to him, and strong teammates on lines behind him to ensure teams can’t focus exclusively on him.

As you’d expect, these rate statistics translate to raw numbers, and Matthews’ point totals are very impressive too. Amazingly, it’s very arguable that they’re depressed, due to his various injuries last season, and a lack of power play time.

The former is hardly his fault, and the latter is a (correct) coaching decision that comes off the back of Toronto having an elite power play unit that doesn’t need Matthews’ brand of genius. Power play scoring is often higher variance than even strength scoring, and can be heavily influenced by systemic decisions (see Edmonton’s impressive ability to make McDavid’s power play production downright mediocre).

Given his talent, his age, and the departure of James van Riemsdyk and Tyler Bozak, expect to see Matthews’ power play scoring increase.

To sum up, Matthews is one of the most destructive offensive players in the world. His personal stats bear that out, as do his on-ice stats. Over the last two seasons, when Matthews is on the ice, the Leafs produce offense. Over the past two years, he ranks 5th in on-ice expected goals for leaguewide. And this is when he was 19 and 20.

Matthews is not a perfect player, by any means. His defense is still very much a work in progress, as he surrenders a lot of shots when on the ice. He’s not an elite player at driving shot attempts as a result, though he makes up for that with the shot quality he generates. That said, there is only one team where Auston Matthews wouldn’t be #1 on a T25U25 list, and there is a real argument to rank him as a top 15 player in the world right now. His offense is that good. We are lucky to have him.

As you’d expect, Matthews was a unanimous #1 vote, as he should be on any team besides the Oilers.

Career Stats

Auston Matthews Stats (via EliteProspects)

What others have to say

Brigstew:

Auston Matthews is a Leaf and teams are going to have nightmares thinking of matchups between him and Tavares. He was at a PPG pace last year but missed a lot of time AND had weirdly poor results on the power play. If he has a fully healthy year I’m wondering if 90 to 100 points isn’t out of his reach.

Oh, and Auston Matthews is a Leaf. Praise be.

Katya:

There was one year, way back when, when Mats Sundin likely mattered more to the Leafs than Auston Matthews does now. But that was 1996-97, and he was pretty much the only goal-scorer on the team. Now, Matthews has a lot of competition for that job, even on his own line, and yet, as a kid (Sundin was 25 that year), he’s very nearly hitting the same percentage of goals scored. He had 14% of the Leafs goals last year and he missed 20 games!

He is the team. He is the blue maple leaf. He is now, and for the rest of his hockey career, the centre of the centre of the universe.

Species:

His teammates call him Awesome Matthews. ‘nuff said.

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