Someone mentioned Tyler Bozak today, and naturally my mind turned to centres of various sorts. I have a fondness for Bozak, and I honestly think the Leafs should have hung on to him. Partly, though, my fondness for him rises form the fact that he (and JvR) were the subject of discussion the first time someone ever posted a screenshot of some on-ice Corsi at me and dropped their imaginary mic.

I think about that mode of thinking a lot to make sure I don't fall into the trap of finding on-ice results meaningful from a very bad team – and the Leafs were very, very dreadful, worse than most PPPers even really wanted to admit.

In talking about Schenn, I said about isolated impact models that you need to consider who is there to be impacted. A team that's 20th in shots against and/or Expected Goals Against – so low end of average – is not all that likely to have a massively impactful defensive forward.

This is the Leafs' forward with the biggest impact on xGA who doesn't play routinely on the fourth line. Steven Lorentz and David Kämpf are better.

The top six players are all very, very negative. In a testament to the somewhat confusing results the Leafs have, the top guys like John Tavares and Auston Matthews are right below the fourth line in good impact on Corsi Against.

The best way I can make sense of that is that the better players control the puck well, but no one limits shot quality against very well. Hence the need for Anthony Stolarz to be nearly perfect even when the Leafs have good Corsi.

Any player the Leafs acquire is going to be playing in that mix, not on his old team, and the strength of the anvil he's hammering on is different. The metal he's trying to form is different. So if you pick a guy by on-ice Corsi, you might as well pick him by height or weight.

The guys:

Scott Laughton

I struggle to separate Laughton the good hockey citizen from Laughton the player. He is a compatriot of JvR, is the same sort of person, and would be an instant asset to any team off the ice. But this is supposed to be about his game. Is he a da Vinci on the ice?

Vitals

Laughton turns 31 soon, is a left-shooting centre, and is from Oakville. He was drafted 20th overall by the Flyers in 2012, and has never played for another organization.

Career

He was below a point per game in his OHL career, and he's at .40 points per game in the NHL. Since he has 660 games played, it's worth looking at points, particularly goals, where he has 106 in that period and his goal-scoring remains consistent (low) in recent seasons.

Laughton hit a career low last year, and that's likely why the Flyers didn't trade him then – he wouldn't have got much return. This year he's bounced back, is playing lower minutes and succeeding largely defensively, which always gives me pause with a forward because just like how Holmberg's impacts on the Leafs can only be so strong, any forward's defensive results are limited by the team play.

The Flyers, to confuse us some more, are really bad at allowing shots against, and really good at limiting the quality against. So when I see some xGA impacts from him – that's the team skill. I wonder if it's also his skill and to what extent.

He has no business on a power play, but his PK skills seem real and he's competent at faceoffs, not gifted.

Bottom line: he used to be a good third liner, but he hasn't been that for three years at least. Changing teams might change that, particularly since he's not that old, but it seems like betting he's a player significantly better than Calle Järnkrok or Pontus Holmberg is unlikely to pay out. He can't touch the hem of John Tavares's robes.

Brock Nelson

Nelson did a very affecting interview played live in-arena after the Islanders beat the Jets last night. It was his goodbye to the fans. Safe to say the trade is coming.

I first noticed Nelson years back when I started to follow the various incarnations of Team USA. They were getting good when you collected up all the NHLers together, and they were obviously (Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, Matthew Tkachuk) going to keep getting better. At that time, Nelson was a support player, and he still is. He's a backbone of a line, not the slick offensive flash.

Vitals

Nelson turned 33 in October and is a left-shooting centre from Warroad, Minnesota. He was drafted 30th overall by the Islanders in 2010 and after only two years in NCAA hockey, became part of the organization and has never left.

Career

He has 901 games played, and 295 goals with a points rate of 0.64. He's over that pace this year and isn't showing a lot of signs of decline at scoring. He is more properly a third-liner now than his heyday where he was a legitimate top-six centre. He's the sort of player who can play top six if his wingers are better than him, though.

The Islanders have almost identical team stats to the Leafs in terms of Corsi and Expected Goals against. Nelson's prior years show better defensive impacts, but this season's decline there is ... Patrick Roy has entered the chat.

He's okay at faceoffs and scores his own goals more than he makes plays.

Yanni Gourde

Gourde just played his first game back after an injury, and he's likely to be moved. He has always been a Corsi darling, but a lot of his reputation dates back to the glory days in Tampa Bay.

Vitals

Gourde is one of the very, very few undrafted players that came up through the ECHL to the NHL. He was first signed by Tampa in 2014. He just turned 33, is a left-shooting centre/winger and is from Saint-Narcisse-de-Beaurivage in Quebec.

Career

Gourde has 581 NHL games played and has a .57 points per game rate. He has 132 goals and 201 assists, so he's much more of a complementary player offensively than Nelson is. He's at a .46 pace this year.

Gourde has always rated out very highly by impact models. He's a top liner according to HockeyViz, and his Evolving Hockey rating is almost as good. These models are high on him primarily because he shows a big impact on Corsi For.

That's an important skill, and the more you have the puck, the less the other team does as well, so he gets some good defensive results. His PK skills are good. But no coach is going to routinely play a player who scores so little in the top six unless he specifically complements the other two players in tangible ways unique to that line.

In that sense, he's a lot like Holmberg, only likely a better player. And I don't think Craig Berube plans on using Holmberg to do his physical, positional and energetic role with Tavares and William Nylander in the playoffs.

As a third-liner, Gourde really ticks a lot of boxes, since a guy who can pick up and haul some wingers into the offensive zone might be just what the Leafs need.

Conclusion

All three of these players are tough, work hard, take the body and play a serious game. They're all okay enough at faceoffs.

Nelson is the best choice by my reckoning, and I think Laughton needs a prove it year somewhere not on the Leafs. He's a much higher-risk acquisition.

Gourde is interesting, and he has a profile you could build a third line around and have a player who won't melt if he has to move up to 2C sometimes, but do the Leafs have the support players for that line? Maybe so. I just think his skills are too hard to see for this team to trade for him.

And since the best defender available likely is Rasmus Ristolainen, I think the best possible C is the way to go.

Analysis