Analysis

Total 544 Posts
Team, play and statistical analysis of the Maple Leafs, their opponents and the NHL as a whole.

The Best and Worst of Brian Burke: Trades #2

A quick recap for those of you who are archivally challenged. Brian Burke's worst trades as Leafs GM: #4 - Kris Versteeg to PHI for a 2011 1st and 2nd #3 - Jiri Tlusty to CAR for the rights to Philippe Paradis This bring us to #2. July

Sifting The AHL

So I know the draft is coming up in a couple of days, and I know the Leafs need more help in their prospect pool. I've actually been thinking about the common perception about the Leafs lack of offensive producers in the pipeline, and considered some potential prospects

The Best and Worst of Brian Burke: Trades #3

With news in Friedman's 30 Thoughts that Burke couldn't come to an agreement on a trade that would see Rick Nash don the blue and white for all the tea in China, we are spared from making an addendum to our list of worst Brian Burke

The Best and Worst of Brian Burke: Trades

The 2012 NHL Draft on Friday brings with it the first real opportunity for teams to make trades in the offseason. Sure they were allowed to do so per the rules beforehand, but it's not until these GMs all get together on an arena floor that you see

Why Signing a Veteran Goalie May Not Help

Entering this off-season, it was obvious the main weakness of the Leafs has yet again been goaltending. Despite praise worthy statistics in the back half of the 2010-11 season from James Reimer, leading to a nice RFA contract for the young starter in waiting, the Leafs net was anything but

Shut Down Index (SDI) Results 2011-2012

So earlier this season, around the midway point, I started trying to devise a measurement tool to assess defensive skill for defenders. I decided after reading the postings on the Heavy Lifter Index written over at PuckProspectus.com that I could craft something comparable for blue liners, with a few

Curse? What Curse? There is no Curse.

Author's Note: This is a re-post from last year because the MSM talking heads just can't seem to get things right. Last weekend, once the Canucks had secured their first overall finish, we got more tales of the Presidents' Trophy Curse. "Only 30% of

Leadership Might Be A Myth

Recently we've been treated to copious amounts of "analysis" attempting to find a rational reason for the Leafs dive to the basement of the NHL. The management is throwing its arms up with a "never seen anything like it" response. The team discusses how

Revisiting a theme: Expected Win Percentages

On Feb 28th, I posted a look at the Leafs upcoming schedule and how we could expect them to do. The basic premise was to make use of the log5 method first devised by Bill James, and the home and away goal differentials via the pythagenpuck win probabilities model to

If You Plan On Paying Him You Might As Well Play Him

Looks like the team's new head coach, Randy Carlyle realizes something many of us around Leaf land have been saying for a while: Mikhail Grabovski is the Leafs top Centre. It appears important that Carlyle get off on the right foot with this team in a relatively short

Expected Win Percentages Rest Of The Way

So in a quick discussion around Home and Road goal differentials around the NHL last night on Twitter with Julian (PPP) and Neil Greenberg, the Washington Capitals blogger from the Washington Post, he linked to a story he had posted recently on the Caps likely probability of winning their games

Return of the Dead Puck Era My Ass

Friend of the blog Justin Bourne put up a post on The Score's Backhand Shelf that I disagree with. Let me tell you why. The post titled "The Sedins and the Numbers Agree: Dead Puck Era Hockey is Creeping Back into the NHL", references an article

Do The Leafs Need A Change?

Recently lots of talk has been in the offing around what and where the Leafs need to change if they hope to make the playoffs. The main stream media has been discussing the trade possibilities posed by this young Leafs squad, and much of this is due to Brian Burke&

Shut Down Defensemen - Part 2

So yesterday I ran down the numbers on a new statistic that's targeted at determining who the best defensive defensemen are in the NHL. I referred to it as the SDI or Shut Down Index, and to briefly summarize it compares a blue liner's Corsi REL

Shut Down Defensemen - Part 1

How often have we heard the idea that defensive blue liners are a "dime a dozen" in the NHL? Probably far more than we should frankly. As a skill set, the defensive defender's repertoire is difficult to master at a high level, and in some ways

The Leafs Best Shot Blockers

A little while ago I was in discussion with Cam Charron about Shot Blocking metrics and the problems of normalization, and he directed me to work by Daniel Wagner over at the Score and a recent posting by Derek Zona over at Copper and Blue, which in turn prompted me

How Long Will The Maple Leafs' Window Be Open?

So a couple of days ago, after watching yet another Leafs loss in 86" of gory glory, I caught myself briefly agreeing with people that think making a trade of one of our young D men makes sense going forward. Luke Schenn, Keith Aulie, and Jake Gardiner had all

Fun With Numbers

Ok so as I was perusing various statistical pages last night, I stumbled across some interesting team statistics that have received nary a mention in the mainstream press. Why? you might be asking yourself, would we want to know anything that isn't quoted in the mainstream press? Well

MacArthur The Elite Scorer?

Reflect back to the start of last season. Think back to when Clarke MacArthur first showed up in Leaf land, fresh from signing a one year, $1.1 million dollar contract that was a $300 K reduction from his previous contract. MacArthur had gone to arbitration as an RFA with

Advanced Stats Helping Explain The Way Things Are

So a couple of days ago if you read the From The Branches, or if you keep tabs on what Gabe Desjardins is up to at BehindTheNet.ca (or Arctic Ice Hockey), you may have noticed that the Fenwick Percentages for the 2011-12 season were added to the mix of

Where Has All The Kulemin Gone?

By this point last year, Nikolai Kulemin had posted 4 goals and 5 assists on 26 shots, during a "slow start" en route to a 30 goal 57 point season. So far this year he has 2 goals and 4 assists on 25 shots, during an even SLOWER

The Apprenticeship of Joe Colborne

Last year at the trade deadline the Leafs dealt Tomas Kaberle to the Boston Bruins in exchange for Joe Colborne, and 1st and 2nd round draft picks (that we traded to get Tyler Biggs and John-Michael Liles respectively). Theoretically if Biggs pans out, and the Leafs at some point either

Variation On A Theme

So far this season it looks like more of the same from Jonas Gustavsson. As we head into a match up versus the Philadelphia Flyers, many Leaf fans are are shaking their heads at the decision to bring Gustavsson back for another kick at the can as an NHL level

Sacrificed On The Altar of Youth and Depth

Juraj Mikus and Korbinian Holzer are a pair of 23 year old defenders with the Toronto Marlies. Mikus was drafted in 2007 in the 5th round, 144th overall, 50 picks before Carl Gunnarsson. Holzer was drafted in 2006, in the 4th round, 111th overall, 12 selections after James Reimer and

Where We Stand

Despite a 3-0-1 record, there are a lot of questions with the current edition of the Leafs. Aside from the top pairing of Phaneuf (+8) and Carl Gunnarsson (+4), the Leafs D has proved to be a bit of a conundrum so far this season. Mike Komisarek has continued to
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