The biggest coinflip of the season is happening in super slow motion.  The coin is in the air, turning, turning, and we don’t know where it’s going to come down.  Heads, it’s an injury. Tails, it’s an overcautious doctor.

While that coin slowly falls, this is where things stand without taking that outcome into consideration:

The full set of numbers is here, if you want to see it in table form or look at the big wheel and see just how large the Leafs’ share of that big pie is right now.  (Bigger than the Bruins and the Islanders.)

The Bruins beat the Islanders last night, without Tuukka Rask, and their change in probabilities is mostly about that, not the very modest drop in the Leafs’ hold on third place in the Atlantic.

The Islanders and the Lightning are essentially out of the picture now, victims of too little too late with their improved play.

Dom Luszczyszyn has a full set of standing predictions here in tabular and line chart form.  The table looks like this:

The main difference here is he gives the Islanders a bigger share of the probability to grab the last wild card spot.  He’s showing the Leafs at 94 points.

Micah McCurdy has his updated playoff chance projections out:

And because some days chortling over the misfortune of others is all you can do, here is the sadness graph:

Winnipeg is at an 80% chance of sadness! Now, don’t you feel better?

Analysis