Mmmmmm pie.  The Toronto Maple Leafs are at 99 percent probability, with the biggest slice of the pie, an oversized 59 percent slice, as the probability they stay where they are today at second place in the Atlantic division.

The Boston Bruins have a 23 percent chance of coming second, and the Ottawa Senators have tumbled to 18 percent on the strength of a losing streak fueled by injuries.

Meanwhile that pesky Tampa Bay Lightning team, you know, the guys who were in last place and traded their starting goalie and gave the Leafs Brian Boyle for an AHL upgrade?  Them?  They are still, just barely, in the game.  They play Boston tonight at 7 pm, and they laugh in the face of injury troubles.

The most likely thing to happen, as has been the case for many days now, is that Toronto, Boston and Ottawa all make the playoffs.  The order they slot in is still in question, but if Toronto takes second they have home ice advantage against either Boston or Ottawa, and the chances right now favour Boston with Ottawa stuck in the wild card spot and a date with whoever wins the conference.

If you’re of a mind to look beyond the first round of the playoffs, Moneypuck.com has the Leafs at a 52 percent chance to make the second round today.

Dom Luszczyszyn at The Hockey News has the Leafs at 98 percent and 97.7 points, which is the same points prediction as Money Puck.  They both have the Bruins and the Senators nearly tied at 96 points, with only fractions separating them.  So any prediction of who wins the first round is based on two different opponents for the Leafs smushed together into one number.

So how do you feel about the Leafs being on the cusp of a playoff spot?

The Leafs are almost in the playoffs, and I feel...

there is no X yet, and I’m still nervous.591
there is no limit to how far this team can go.151
strange things that might be hope. 155
I feel good! I knew that I would, now. So good. So good. 139
Analysis