Philadelphia Flyers @ Toronto Maple Leafs
07:00 PM at Scotiabank Arena
Watch on: TSN4, NBCSP
The Leafs last game was at home on February 13 against the St. Louis Blues, which Toronto won by a score of 4-1 in regulation. The Leafs have a record of 27-16-8 for a 0.608 Points %.
The Philadelphia Flyers last played at home on February 12 against the Arizona Coyotes. The Flyers won by a score of 5-3 in regulation, and their current league record is 29-19-6 for a 0.593 Points %.
Them
The Leafs just finished off the surprise wild card claimant in the west, now it's the eastern version. Of course, the Flyers are third in the Metro right now, but the Devils, Islanders and Penguins have credible enough teams to take that spot from the Flyers. I think it's not if that happens, but who succeeds in taking it.
At five-on-five, the Flyers are much, much better team than the Blues. The east is a tougher division, and top ten team in five-on-five Expected Goals, like the Flyers can be not good enough to hold that playoff spot. For one thing, the Devils and Penguins are both better by this measure.
The Flyers have had very poor goaltending at five-on-five, below average in all-situations, and have very, very low shooting percentages. They might have solid systems and hard work going for them, but the talent just isn't there. Their power play is low-quality by Expected Goals and they have the lowest Goals For % in the NHL on the power play.
Note: mention of sexual assault below.
Normally I talk more in depth about goalies in a preview. And I don't want to pretend that nothing has changed on the Flyers. Carter Hart, who has been charged with sexual assault, played 26 games, nearly half the starts for the team to date. He's not playing again this season.
The Flyers are now playing with Samuel Ersson, who has played in 26 games for them and Cal Petersen, who has played in four games. Petersen, a reclamation project for the team after the LA Kings wanted to move on from him, has been a poor performer, and has the identical Save % in the AHL – .890 as he has in his four NHL games.
Ersson is 24, in his third year pro in North America, and is just slightly better in both the AHL last season and the NHL this season. He's 27th in the NHL for goalies with at least 15 games at Goals Saved Above Expected per 60.
The Flyers are generally poor in all offensive areas, but their top line is really something this year. The Leafs will need to sacrifice a line to check them while letting the middle six look good again like they did against the Blues.
Lines
Projected based on last game
Owen Tippett - Sean Couturier - Travis Konecny
Joel Farabee - Morgan Frost - Cam Atkinson
Garnet Hathaway - Ryan Poehling - Noah Cates
Olle Lycksell - Scott Laughton - Egor Zamula
Cam York - Travis Sanheim
Marc Staal - Jamie Drysdale
Nick Seeler - Sean Walker
Samuel Ersson
Cal Petersen
Us
The virus going around the Leafs kept several players out last game or practice, but John Tavares, William Nylander and Mitch Marner were all present at the optional skate today and the expectation is they will play.
Alex Steeves is absent, and Max Lajoie is back.
Lines
My guess if the top six is all back in the game. Winger arrangement in the bottom six subject to the whim of the coach.
Matthew Knies - Auston Matthews - Mitch Marner
Tyler Bertuzzi - John Tavares - William Nylander
Pontus Holmberg - Max Domi - Nicholas Robertson
Bobby McMann - David Kämpf - Noah Gregor
T.J. Brodie - Timothy Liljegren
Simon Benoit - Jake McCabe
William Lagesson - Mark Giordano
Ilya Samsonov - starter
Dennis Hildeby
The Game
The Flyers are generally poor in all offensive areas, but their top line is really something this year. The Leafs will need to sacrifice a line to check them while letting some other line look good against weak competition like they did against the Blues.
