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Edmonton Oilers @ Toronto Maple Leafs
07:00 PM at Scotiabank Arena
Watch on: SN, CBC

The Leafs last game was away on March 20 against the Washington Capitals, which Toronto won by a score of 7-3 in regulation. The Leafs have a record of 39-20-9 for a 0.640 Points %.

The Edmonton Oilers last played at home on March 21 against the Buffalo Sabres. The Oilers won by a score of 8-3 in regulation, and their current league record is 42-21-4 for a 0.657 Points %.

Them

The Oilers are second in the Pacific, can't get to first, and seem able to hold off the LA/Vegas challenge. They are trying to set themselves up for the playoffs, the same as Toronto.

The Oilers lead the NHL in five-on-five Expected Goals. Their 57% is Carolina-level good. Their power play is nearly identical to the Leafs in Expected goals and goals scored. The teams are third and fourth with not much light between them.

TV broadcasts love to pick some endpoints and tell you a team is x in y games on the power play to make them look bad or good. But the season tells the story. The Oilers are very good at special teams and five-on-five. Except in net.

They are a little below average overall in Save % and have lucked into some good performances from Stuart Skinner at just the right time. With just slightly better goaltending, they would be leading the Western Conference in points.

Lines

From today via Tony Brar

Lean Draisaitl - Connor McDavid - Zach Hyman
Warren Foegele - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Ryan Mcleod
Evander Kane - Adam Henrique - Corey Perry
Mattias Janmark - Sam Carrick - Connor Brown

Mattieas Ekholm - Evan Bouchard
Darnell Nurse - Vincent Desharnais
Brett Kulak - Cody Ceci

Stuart Skinner - likely starter
Calvin Pickard

Us

Some things became clearer at yesterday's practice. TJ Brodie is likely to sit out for more than just tonight. Ilya Lyubushkin is still ill and will not play.

Ryan Reaves took a finger to the eye in that fight two games ago. He was at practice wearing a visor for the first time in his career and might play.

The Max Domi with Auston Matthews experiment continues. It worked very, very well against the weak Washington Capitals, will it work against the Oilers, and what is plan B if it doesn't.

Tyler Bertuzzi was ill in the last game and didn't hit the ice until the midpoint of the first period. He is still sick, and may not play tonight. The Leafs had zero extra forwards last game, and one now if Reaves is able to play.

It's another back-to-back pair, so Samsonov will get one game and Woll the other. Both teams are very strong, so there's not much difference as to who plays which. Sheldon Keefe is planning to split the remaining games fairly evenly between the two of them.

Lines

Mark Masters via Daily Faceoff

Tyler Bertuzzi - Auston Matthews - Max Domi
Matthew Knies - John Tavares - William Nylander
Bobby McMann - Pontus Holmberg - Nicholas Robertson
Connor Dewar - David Kämpf - Noah Gregor

Morgan Rielly - Jake McCabe
Joel Edmundson - Timothy Liljegren
Simon Benoit - Conor Timmins

Ilya Samsonov
Joe Woll

The Game

That was a nice fun run of games playing bubble teams. Fun's over until next week. This weekend is serious teams, a real test of the ability of the Leafs to rise to the occasion.

Lots of talk tonight will be about Zach Hyman needing two goals to get to 50. He is the one who got away, and it was painful for me at the time because I think he was the essence of the Maple Leafs in a way the TV producers would never admit. Imagine the alternate universe...

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