Nashville Predators @ Toronto Maple Leafs
07:30 PM at Scotiabank Arena
Watch on: SN, TVAS2, FDSNSO

The Leafs last game was at home on December 2 against the Chicago Blackhawks, which Toronto won by a score of 4-1 in regulation. The Leafs have a record of 15-7-2 for a 0.667 Points %.

The Nashville Predators last played away on November 30 against the Minnesota Wild. The Predators lost by a score of 3-2 in overtime, and their current league record is 7-12-6 for a 0.400 Points %.

Them

It wasn't supposed to be like this. Nashville and Utah both opened up the chequebook and signed big names, made big trades and said, "Look at us, we're serious about competing." And for Utah, with the mass of picks and prospects, their tepid start to the season is tolerable. For the Predators? It's the kind of failure that usually gets someone fired.

First, let's figure out how bad they really are. Second last in the NHL with only two points separating them from Chicago, the team not trying to be good, can't just be bad luck, but it isn't necessarily all deserved.

They have average goaltending by Save % in all-situations and they are dead on 50% Corsi at five-on-five. Their power play is slightly above average in Expected Goals rate and right on average in goal rate. Their PK Expected Goals rate is a little below average, but they have the best shorthanded Save % in the league. They should be a kinda meh team, not a bottom feeder. They are worse in Expected Goals % at five-on-five, a problem coming mostly from offensive quality, but they should be duking it out with the Bruins, the Blue Jackets and the Blues for sort of not very good, but also not bad honours.

Why aren't they? In a word Shooting % (yes that's two words). They have the worst Sh% differential in the NHL and are more bad at -.74 than the Jets are good at .68. (You can find this in the G+/- Components at Evolving Hockey. It seeks to break down the source of the goals for and against by shotshare, shot quality, shooting and goaltending.) Their team Sh% in all-situations is 7.91, last in the NHL of course. And they are last at five-on-five as well.

Steven Stamkos, one of the NHL's best goal scorers, is shooting 11% in all-situations, his lowest number ever, but not dramatically different from some of his prior seasons. His career average is 16.5%, though.

The problem is partly Jonathan Marchessault, who has the third-most shots (Individual Corsi) on the team is at 5% and Roman Josi, Brady Skjei and Luke Schenn are all top 10 on the team in shots. Nashville's defence-focused shooting is biting them in the butt pretty hard this year.

The problem is partly that Ryan O'Reilly is their top-line centre, when whoever plays with Filip Forsberg is meant to be feeding him passes, not grinding out a two-way game. The roster just isn't good enough.

It's amazing in a way, that the first deal they made was a backup goalie swap because that's not really the problem and won't be the solution. The goalies have taken heat for the illusion of poor performance cause by very, very bad sequencing luck. That is: saves when you don't need them, and goals going in when they hurt you the most. Everyone loves making a story to explain why the goalie should be clutchier, but it just is what it is.

It was a good trade, but they need to either throw in the towel and really re-tool or make a meaningful change.

Lines

Max Herz via Daily Faceoff from yesterday's practice.

Filip Forsberg - Ryan O'Reilly - Gustav Nyquist
Steven Stamkos - Tommy Novak - Jonathan Marchessault
Mark Jankowski - Fedor Svechkov - Luke Evangelista
Zachary L'Heureux - Colton Sissons - Cole Smith

Roman Josi - Alexandre Carrier
Brady Skjei - Nick Blankenburg
Adam Wilsby - Luke Schenn

Juuse Saros - presumed starter
Justus Annunen
(both nicknamed Juice)

Us

Ryan Reaves is back from suspension, Max Domi isn't ready yet, and Max Pacioretty can't play yet because his LTIR hasn't run out. Alex Nylander sits. Jake McCabe is not quite better even though he practiced yesterday.

Lines

Mark Masters via Daily Faceoff from yesterday's practice with the defence adjusted.

Matthew Knies - Auston Matthews - William Nylander
Pontus Holmberg - John Tavares - Mitch Marner
Nicholas Robertson - Fraser Minten - Steven Lorentz
Nikita Grebenkin - Connor Dewar - Ryan Reaves

Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Chris Tanev
Morgan Rielly - Philippe Myers
Simon Benoit - Conor Timmins

Joe Woll - starter
Anthony Stolarz

The Game

The key here is to not play like they did vs Chicago. Not just because the Preds are actually a lot better than Chicago, but because if they play that slack again, it risks becoming a habit.

Game Coverage