Ottawa Senators @ Toronto Maple Leafs
07:00 PM at Scotiabank Arena
Watch on: TSN4, RDS, TSN5

The Leafs last game was at home on November 9 against the Montréal Canadiens, which Toronto won by a score of 4-1 in regulation. The Leafs have a record of 9-5-2 for a 0.625 Points %.

The Ottawa Senators last played away on November 9 against the Boston Bruins. The Senators won by a score of 3-2 in overtime, and their current league record is 7-7-0 for a 0.500 Points %.

Them

The Senators finished seventh in the Atlantic last year, with the hapless Habs two points behind them. They had a -26 goal differential, and a Points % of .476.

Right now they are sixth in the Atlantic with a +4 goal differential and a .500 Points %.

So they're a little better? Well... First you have to realize, they weren't actually bad last year. I know Leafs fans just want that to be true, so it just seems like they are, but outside of the second worst all-situations Save % in the league, they were a solidly mediocre team. Everything was about average or a little below. Just having league average goaltending should make them a bubble team.

So far this year in all-situations, they are 25th in team Save %. So much for league average. However, as any Leafs fan should know ...

goalies can start out bad and end up tolerable or even excellent.

At five-on-five this year, the Sens aren't just better, they've been top 10 in the NHL by Corsi or Expected Goals. They are slightly better than the Leafs at Expected Goals Against and have the same mediocre pace of Expected Goals For. The ratio is good.

Their power play is poor in Expected Goals pace, but they've been shooting over expected by about the same amount the Leafs have been shooting under expected on their better efforts.

Yes, they are a lot better, but can still get sunk by the goalie. They've played a lot of close games and have lost a few more than they'd probably be happy with. There's a lot of random chance in close game outcomes, which is why you don't want to be tied in the third period a lot.

Lines

Bruce Garrioch via Daily Faceoff from yesterday's practice

Brady Tkachuk - Josh Norris - Ridly Greig
Claude Giroux - Tim Stützle - Drake Batherson
Noah Gregor - Shane Pinto - Michael Amadio
Nick Cousins - Adam Gaudette - Zack MacEwen

Jake Sanderson - Artem Zub
Thomas Chabot - Nick Jensen
Tyler Kleven - Travis Hamonic

Linus Ullmark - starter
Anton Forsberg

Us

The Leafs have been offsetting a dull offensive game with excellent special teams results lately. For the first time in quite a few years, the Leafs should be able to equal the Senators' defensive game. They should be better in net. They should be better on the power play.

With Max Pacioretty out for "weeks", Connor Dewar makes his debut.

Alex Steeves has been recalled and could draw in, or he might just be there as an extra as the Leafs head off the Washington for tomorrow's game.

Lines

Mark Masters via Daily Faceoff based on yesterday's practice.

Matthew Knies - Max Domi - Mitch Marner
Bobby McMann - John Tavares - William Nylander
Nicholas Robertson - Pontus Holmberg - Connor Dewar
Steven Lorentz - David Kämpf - Ryan Reaves

Morgan Rielly - Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Jake McCabe - Chris Tanev
Simon Benoit - Conor Timmins

Anthony Stolarz - starter
Joe Woll

The Game

All the shoulds go out the window when a team like the Sens comes in looking to rile up the easy marks on the Leafs and draw penalties. Let's see if the Leafs can resist that.

Jake McCabe, Pontus Holmberg, Max Domi: those are the easy marks. They all have majors. Add Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Simon Benoit and Chris Taven to Domi's team lead in minors, and you have defensive infractions mostly driving the train to the box.

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