Preview: Leafs vs Oilers

Edmonton Oilers @ Toronto Maple Leafs
07:00 PM at Scotiabank Arena
Watch on: SN, NHLN, CBC

The Leafs last game was away on November 13 against the Washington Capitals, which Toronto won by a score of 4-3 in overtime. The Leafs have a record of 10-6-2 for a 0.611 Points %.

The Edmonton Oilers last played at home on November 14 against the Nashville Predators. The Oilers won by a score of 3-2 in overtime, and their current league record is 9-7-1 for a 0.559 Points %.

Them

Last season the Oilers had an Expected Goals rate (per 60 minutes) on the power play of 10.72 (Evolving Hockey numbers). They were third in the NHL behind the Wild and the Panther, and the Leafs were fourth with 10.57. The Oilers scored more goals, with a rate of 10.59, second only to the Lightning and the Leafs were sixth with 9.49. Not a huge difference.

This season, though – what is going on? We know the Leafs story: Marc Savard tried to teach them the hokey pokey and no one can remember the steps. The Leafs, who were really down in the basement eraly, have brought their Expected Goals rate up to 11th at 9.55. Their goals rate lags behind at 7.04, a normal occurrence in less than 100 minutes of time, but nonetheless cause for much angst.

The Oilers, meanwhile, are 16th at 8.34, and their goal rate is 5.74. What is their excuse? Their goals last year came from Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman, with Evan Bouchard and Connor McDavid picking up the extras. This year, while McDavid is shooting a lot, Draisaitl and Hyman aren't. Whatever magic they had going on last year is gone. It adds up to a below average power play:

The Oilers had a positive goal differential last year at five-on-five, and the +60 on the power play is just the gravy you need to finish high up in the standings. This year, their five-on-five play has a zero goal differential on 56% Expected Goals %.

They are a better five-on-five team than the Leafs, with as good defensive results and a more effective offence. They haven't been scoring, but that's not going to last. But stop me if you've heard this one before: their goalies are terrible. Of the 50 goalies with at least six games played (Moneypuck now, I like that site for goalies) Stuart Skinner is 47th and Calvin Pickard is 38th in Goals Save Above Expected per 60 minutes.

This all adds up to a result that says that low points percentage is a fairly accurate reflection of the team.

Lines

From morning skate in Toronto:

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Connor McDavid - Zach Hyman
Vasily Podkolzin - Leon Draisaitl - Viktor Arvidsson
Mattias Janmark - Adam Henrique - Connor Brown
Jeff Skinner - Derek Ryan - Corey Perry

Mattias Ekholm - Evan Bouchard
Darnell Nurse - Travis Dermott
Brett Kulak - Ty Emberson

Stuart Skinner
Calvin Pickard

Us

Auston Matthews is not playing, and Max Domi has now skipped two practices for "maintenance" which says something is wrong with him. That might be part of why his most recent games have been some of his worst.

The Leafs are continuing with the semi-fictional use of Jani Hakanpää on the top pair. It's a bad idea and eventually they will stop, much like the William Nylander at centre idea stopped and the Max Domi as 1C idea and the Nick Robertson top-six idea and the... I get the impression Craig Berube is one of those guys for whom nothing is real until he personally experiences it.

Alex Steeves is coming out for Robertson, but Steeves was really energetic and got in tight around the net vs Washington. I'm not sure he was making a very big impact, but he was fun to watch.

Lines

Mark Masters via Daily Faceoff from yesterday's practice with Robertson replacing Steeves.

Bobby McMann - John Tavares - Mitch Marner
Matthew Knies - Max Domi - William Nylander
Pontus Holmberg - David Kämpf - Nick Robertson
Connor Dewar - Steven Lorentz - Ryan Reaves

Morgan Rielly - Jani Hakanpää
Jake McCabe - Chris Tanev
Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Conor Timmins

Anthony Stolarz - starter
Joe Woll

The Game

Don't let the Oilers regress on your dime, Leafs. They can go another game not scoring.