Toronto Maple Leafs @ Dallas Stars
07:30 PM at American Airlines Center
Watch on: SN, TVAS, Victory+

The Leafs last game was at home on December 15 against the Buffalo Sabres, which Toronto won by a score of 5-3 in regulation. The Leafs have a record of 19-10-2 for a 0.645 Points %.

The Dallas Stars last played at home on December 16 against the Washington Capitals. The Stars won by a score of 3-1 in regulation, and their current league record is 19-11-0 for a 0.633 Points %.

Them

The Leafs are ahead of Dallas in the standings – they are eighth and ninth by Points % – but everyone will be sure that Dallas is the better team. That's partly standard Leafs fans certainty their own team is bad, but also that rosy glow that hovers over the Stars because most people never watch them and don't intimately know their flaws.

The Stars have some really good young players in Wyatt Johnston and also Logan Stankoven. But their real roster strength is defence.

Wait. Ilya Lyubushkin is playing on the second pair? Are we sure they're perfect?

The Stars get their success from very good possession and goaltending. Their Expected Goals % is a little lower than their Corsi – meaning they are losing some value on shot quality – but when the numbers round out to 53%, there's nothing to worry about.

Their power play is about equal to the Leafs in Expected Goals – very good – and they've been almost equally unlucky at getting actual goals.

Their goaltending is by committee, with Casey DeSmith and Jake Oettinger both playing well, but not top of the league great. DeSmith is out with an injury and is day-to-day. They are mediocre at Expected Goals Against, and heavy offensive pressure and very strong defence both are the ways to beat them.

You won't see Tyler Seguin, who requires hip surgery and will miss the rest of the regular season, or close to it. Lyubushkin seems to have floated up the lineup when Matt Dumba turned out to be not very good (imagine!) He is now out with an injury as well.

Lines

Last Game (2024-12-16) via Daily Faceoff

Jason Robertson - Roope Hintz - Wyatt Johnston
Mason Marchment - Matt Duchene - Logan Stankoven
Jamie Benn - Sam Steel - Evgenii Dadonov
Oskar Back - Mavrik Bourque - Colin Blackwell

Lian Bichsel - Miro Heiskanen
Esa Lindell - Ilya Lyubushkin
Brendan Smith - Nils Lundkvist

Jake Oettinger - he has to start, it's his birthday
Magnus Hellberg

Us

If the Leafs had decent puck possession and the pace of offence they used to produce, they'd be the Stars.

Expect this game to be Joe Woll vs his old Team USA tandem partner Jake Oettinger while the veteran Hellberg and rookie Hildeby watch from the bench.

The narrative about the Leafs being really good defensively has hit the wall of changing reality, and they are now right in the middle of the pack in terms of Expected Goals Against and are still bad a Corsi Against.

I don't understand the defensive pairings from the recent practice, and while Phil Myers shows some good positioning and subtle defensive plays at times, he also shows some of the reasons he's never stuck in the NHL. Maybe Oliver Ekman-Larsson needs a break from big minutes.

Edited to add: It was all a fake apparently.

I'm fine with Pontus Holmberg getting a game off here and there. He takes so many hits, he can use a rest now and again.

David Kämpf makes his return, giving Connor Dewar a night off as well. The roster is getting full again.

Lines

David Alter via Daily Faceoff from yesterday with today's changes.

William Nylander - Auston Matthews - Mitch Marner
Matthew Knies - John Tavares - Max Pacioretty
Bobby McMann - Max Domi - Nicholas Robertson
Steven Lorentz - David Kämpf - Ryan Reaves

Morgan Rielly - Philippe Myers Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Jake McCabe - Chris Tanev
Simon Benoit - Conor Timmins

Joe Woll - assumed starter
Dennis Hildeby

The Game

This is tough test of the Leafs system, top six ability and the alleged defensive excellence.

Game Coverage