Toronto Maple Leafs @ Winnipeg Jets
07:30 PM at Canada Life Centre
Watch on: Prime

The Leafs last game was away on October 26 against the Boston Bruins, which Toronto lost by a score of 4-3 in overtime. The Leafs have a record of 4-4-1 for a 0.500 Points %.

The Winnipeg Jets last played away on October 26 against the Calgary Flames. The Jets won by a score of 5-3 in regulation, and their current league record is 8-0-0 for a 1.000 Points %.

Them

The Jets aren't winning every game all year, and there is no way a perfect record is a true indicator of their team strength. So how are they doing this?

Luck? You bet. Every team has luck – good and bad, and if you want to know the PDO, you have to look that up yourself (it's not a measure of luck, though).

Goalie? More like goalies plural. The Jets have the second-best all-situations Save % in the NHL right now at .932. Connor Hellebuyck is not lighting the world on fire, but he is 14th in Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 minutes (Moneypuck) and Eric Comrie is 18th.

Good defence? If the goalie doesn't have to be league leading to get a hot Save %, then the defence is usually good. The Jets are actually pretty mediocre at Expected Goals Against both at five-on-five and shorthanded. So it's a combination of good enough defence and two good goalies.

But what about the competition? Glad you asked, that's very meaningful in only a few games. The Jets have played: EDM, CHI, MIN, SJS, PIT, STL, SEA, CGY. They got Edmonton before they remembered what hockey was and have played two teams in the top 10 of the league by points %, three in the bottom 10.

And the power play? Leafs-level mediocre in Expected Goals and a hilarious and unsustainable actual goal rate.

It's a shooting % binge, isn't it? They have eight players shooting over 10% at five-on-five and six over 20% on the power play. Yes, it is a shooting binge.

So are they good? Their Corsi and Expected Goals at five-on-five is as worryingly mediocre and bad respectively as the Leafs. They get to the same percentages by being worse offensively and better defensively. If I were their fans, I'd take the Leafs record as a cautionary tale. They aren't bad, they're very good in net, they're very meh everywhere else, and they get goals in their sleep right now.

Lines

Mitchell Clinton via Daily Faceoff from the last game. Same lines for today.

Kyle Connor - Mark Scheifele - Gabriel Vilardi
Cole Perfetti - Vladislav Namestnikov - Nikolaj Ehlers
Nino Niederreiter - Adam Lowry - Mason Appleton
Morgan Barron - Rasmus Kupari - Alex Iafallo

Josh Morrissey - Dylan DeMelo
Dylan Samberg - Neal Pionk
Logan Stanley - Colin Miller

Connor Hellebuyck - assumed starter
Eric Comrie

Us

The Leafs scratched out a point against the Bruins in a game that showed some more coherence, but still had lot's of signs of this year's October disease.

The blender is on frappé for the power play units:

The forward lines today are the expected endgame from the Nylander at centre experiment through all the other permutations of a new format to this conclusion right down to Nick Robertson as the extra skater.

Lines

Today's lines:

Matthew Knies - Auston Matthews - Mitch Marner
Max Pacioretty - John Tavares - William Nylander
Bobby McMann - Max Domi - Pontus Holmberg
Steven Lorentz - David Kämpf - Ryan Reaves

Morgan Rielly - Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Jake McCabe - Chris Tanev
Simon Benoit - Conor Timmins

Anthony Stolarz - assumed starter
Joe Woll

The Game

Just beat them.

Game Coverage