Toronto Maple Leafs @ Boston Bruins
07:00 PM at TD Garden
Watch on: SN, NHLN, CBC, NESN

The Leafs last game was at home on October 24 against the St. Louis Blues, which Toronto lost by a score of 5-1 in regulation. The Leafs have a record of 4-4-0 for a 0.500 Points %.

The Boston Bruins last played at home on October 24 against the Dallas Stars. The Bruins lost by a score of 5-2 in regulation, and their current league record is 3-4-1 for a 0.438 Points %.

Them

Oh, look at these two teams, so similar, so alike, so walking the same path. The coaches are yelling at the captain, they keep losing big, and they are both exactly and identically the same. Or so says the narrative made from the outcome. Outcomes, such reliable indicators in hockey, prove that if their records are similar, well, they are virtually twins indeed.

Yes, I am tired in advance of this story, and of the people who will grasp it to their hearts with both hands because it confirms their priors. Why are the Bruins losing all the time? My preconceived idea is that they are just a very weak team offensively in ways coaching or a decent enough defence corps isn't going to overcome.

So far the Bruins have a five-on-five Corsi % of 44, good for 28th in the NHL. Their Expected Goals is 45, good for 29th. I actually find that shockingly low, because this roster looks like one that should cruise around 50% in all categories and finish as a bubble team. So it's very likely they are underperforming their true ability in some way. They've had good enough goaltending to pull their goals % up a little, but you can't win games with those results long term. Their problem is, indeed offensive pace, and they are at the bottom of the league in rate of Expected Goals For.

If the meme is that Jeremy Swayman got his money and now doesn't try, well, he is the only reason they aren't tied with the Habs for last place in the division.

We need to worry about their power play since the Leafs can't stay out of the box. They are doing very well in terms of shot rates and quality, as they normally do, but they've been underscoring a lot. Bad luck, lack of skill, hitting hot goalies – all of those in some measure is the cause there. The Bruins also can't stay out of the box and lead the NHL in minutes shorthanded. So there we are, I found something about these teams that is similar.

The potential in the Bruins roster is just not there to improve that offence very much – Elias Lindholm is not a 1C, no matter how many goals he scored that one year in Calgary. If they can execute a system that gets them up into mediocre shotshare territory, they have the tools in their power play and their goalie to win more than they seem like they should, but they aren't a great team having a rough patch. They're a somewhat bad team performing like a tanker.

Lines

Scott McLaughlin from yesterday and quite different to the last game. They waived a player yesterday, and may be recalling someone when he clears today.

Pavel Zacha - Elias Lindholm - David Pastrnak
Brad Marchand - Charlie Coyle - Matthew Poitras
Trent Frederic - Morgan Geekie - Justin Brazeau
John Beecher - Mark Kastelic - Cole Koepke

Mason Lohrei - Charlie McAvoy
Hampus Lindholm - Brandon Carlo
Nikita Zadorov - Andrew Peeke

Jeremy Swayman - assumed starter
Joonas Korpisalo

Us

The Leafs, now, they are doomed. This whole business of losing is because they're overpaid and they don't care. Break them up! Tinker with the fourth line! Swap the top-six wingers! All the standard clichés are coming out thick and heavy.

So what is the general problem beyond the obvious power play woes? The power play, by the way, has crawled up in Expected Goals rate to actual mediocre instead of league-bottom bad. The goals rate isn't there yet, though, and all mystical reasons why that might be aside – that will change.

The problems are really easy to see, and behind the fairly absurd claims the Shots on Goal were falsified in the last game lies the truth: The Leafs don't look like they shoot the puck much because you spend almost no time expecting to see a goal come from any of their shooting.

Their offensive quality is absolute trash. They aren't defending exceptionally well – but that's not crushing them. Anthony Stolarz is adding value, but no, that last game was not all Joe Woll's fault.

They do have the puck more. They look like they're doing very good things in the neutral zone. They look like the Bruins in the offensive zone, and that's absurd given the roster. The potential for that to improve is immense compared to what the Bruins can hope for.

No big changes in the roster. Yet:

There is no cap space to reactivate anyone, however.

Max Pacioretty was on the second power play unit at practice, but not in the line rushes. He may play today, though. The top two defence pairs have been rearranged, but Morgan Rielly has already been playing with Oliver Ekman-Larsson 30% of the time and with Chris Tanev 70%, so not a major renovation.

Lines

David Alter from today.

Matthew Knies - Auston Matthews - Mitch Marner
Bobby McMann - Max Domi - William Nylander
Steven Lorentz - John Tavares - Nicholas Robertson
Pontus Holmberg - David Kämpf - Ryan Reaves

Morgan Rielly - Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Chris Tanev - Jake McCabe
Simon Benoit - Phil Myers

Anthony Stolarz - starter
Joe Woll

The Game

Maybe all this talk about attention to detail has some merit, but what I see is individual players who don't know exactly what they're going to do with the puck before they even have it – Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner excepted. Matt Knies is just playing his game, and that top line is very good. There is no offensive quality problem when Matthews is playing. Beyond him, it all depends on how the various lines are arranged.

And all of this is so tinted by how other teams matched up to the various lines and which defenders were out and who performed well in a given situation, that it's meaningless to dig any deeper. The quality of play from Matthews, Marner and Knies is so good – Leafs typical from the years before last year's troubles – that I'm confident they're fine as they are.

This early in the season you get absurdities like the Reaves-Kämpf-Holmberg version of the fourth line at 80% Expected Goals. They aren't going to stay there, although the fourth line has been performing exactly as required and is not a problem in any way.

The recipe for success is first do something good with the puck when you have it, not whatever has been going on up to now, and the second is defend at least at the level of average. Next comes stay out of the box and get that power play back in the top echelon of the NHL. Mediocre won't cut it.

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