Montréal Canadiens @ Toronto Maple Leafs
07:00 PM at Scotiabank Arena
Watch on: SN, CBC, TVAS

The Leafs last game was away on April 9 against the Tampa Bay Lightning, which Toronto won by a score of 4-3 in overtime. The Leafs have a record of 48-26-4 for a 0.641 Points %.

The Montréal Canadiens last played away on April 11 against the Ottawa Senators. The Canadiens lost by a score of 5-2 in regulation, and their current league record is 39-31-9 for a 0.551 Points %.

Them

How did they get in the playoffs? That's my only question about this team. We've seen them play several times, and while they're fast and they have a couple of good shooters, this is not a playoff roster at first look.

I looked into this and I started with their Points %:

They did it all between game 20 and game 40. They've held that level since, but the change from a last place team to the last wild card spot happened then. How, though?

I looked at a couple of things, the obvious suspects - Expected Goals % at five-on-five, Goals For and Against, all the things you'd look for to see a change in play. You can do this here:

NHL Team Advanced Stats
Analyze all NHL teams with advanced stats & data visualization

And the answer is really simple. The goaltending got better. Not by a huge amount, but just enough to get some wins. They did score a little more for a short run, but they haven't maintained that pace.

The Canadiens clinch a playoff spot with a win in regulation. An overtime or shootout win for them does the job with some help from other results.

With a game last night the Canadiens might have some changes tonight. Lines below are from the last game. Ivan Demidov, their newly signed prospect, took morning skate in Toronto with the extras, so he's apparently not getting tossed into a Leafs game for his first ever NHL outing.

Jakub Dobes is the starter. He's in his first season in the NHL, and has split his time almost exactly between Laval and Montréal.

Seriously, what are they doing in the playoffs? Everyone in Detroit, Buffalo and both flavours of New York should be fired.

Lines

Last Game (2025-04-08) via Daily Faceoff

Cole Caufield - Nick Suzuki - Juraj Slafkovsky
Oliver Kapanen - Alex Newhook - Patrik Laine
Josh Anderson - Christian Dvorak - Brendan Gallagher
Michael Pezzetta - Jake Evans - Joel Armia

Mike Matheson - Alexandre Carrier
Kaiden Guhle - Lane Hutson
Jayden Struble - David Savard

Sam Montembeault
Jakub Dobes - confirmed starter

Us

The Leafs are playing a man short tonight, with Oliver Ekman-Larsson too hurt to play. Luckily this game will allow the Leafs to recall a player for tomorrow's game who does not count against the cap. The only restriction is that their AAV be under $875,000.

No changes to the forwards, they might get arranged differently, but why mess with what just beat the Lightning? Craig Berube did suggest he might give Mitch Marner on some defence shifts if necessary for minute management.

Lines

Mark Masters via Daily Faceoff

Matthew Knies - Auston Matthews - Mitch Marner
Calle Järnkrok - John Tavares - William Nylander
Bobby McMann - Max Domi - Nicholas Robertson
Pontus Holmberg - Scott Laughton - Steven Lorentz

Morgan Rielly - Brandon Carlo
Simon Benoit - Chris Tanev
Philippe Myers

Joe Woll
Anthony Stolarz - confirmed starter

The Game

I don't want the Habs to clinch in Toronto.

Game Coverage