Chicago Blackhawks @ Toronto Maple Leafs
07:30 PM at Scotiabank Arena
Watch on: Prime, TVAS, CHSN

The Leafs last game was away on November 30 against the Tampa Bay Lightning, which Toronto won by a score of 5-3 in regulation. The Leafs have a record of 14-7-2 for a 0.652 Points %.

The Chicago Blackhawks last played at home on December 1 against the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Blackhawks lost by a score of 6-3 in regulation, and their current league record is 8-14-2 for a 0.375 Points %.

Them

Chicago came back in that Columbus game and scored three times on the power play to get close, only to have Columbus pull away again. This is not a big surprise, most serious league analysis had Columbus as a team that was floating up the rankings and Chicago as a team stuck in the mud at the bottom.

Only the Sharks are worse than Chicago at Corsi % at five-on-five. In terms of Expected Goals, Chicago adds some value primarily defensively to put them 27th by that percentage. I am deeply suspicious of what numbers like this mean for a team not trying to win. What can and does frequently happen is that a team playing the worst in the NHL doesn't have to work a full 60 minutes to net three or four goals, so the rest of the time, the bad team can build up some defensive stats as the other team plays a style not dissimilar to the infamous methods use to hold a tie into overtime. I actually expect Corsi or Expected Goals numbers to overstate team strength at the bottom end.

On the other hand, just because you're bad most of the time doesn't mean your power play is. Chicago's Expected Goals rate on the power play is fifth best in the NHL and they have scored right on the expected amount too. They have 16 power play goals on the fourth lowest power play minutes in the NHL. Bad teams rarely draw a lot of penalties.

Petr Mrázek, who plays most of Chicago's games, is right on average in the NHL and he played yesterday, so it would be more likely to see Arvid Söderblom, who has been good in limited use.

You know, this team should be better than their numbers not worse. That's some serious forward ability and one decent defence pair.

Lines

Last Game (2024-11-29) via Daily Faceoff

Taylor Hall - Connor Bedard - Philipp Kurashev
Tyler Bertuzzi - Ryan Donato - Teuvo Teravainen
Ilya Mikheyev - Jason Dickinson - Nick Foligno
Pat Maroon - Lukas Reichel - Craig Smith

Alex Vlasic - Connor Murphy
Wyatt Kaiser - Alec Martinez
Louis Crevier - T.J. Brodie

Petr Mrázek
Arvid Söderblom

Us

The question for every game right now is who is healthy and returning to the lineup. If you missed it Saturday, Alex Steeves was returned to the AHL to make roster room for Matt Knies and Auston Matthews to both come back. The Leafs are at 23 on the roster, with everyone healthy except the day-to-day Bobby McMann.

For anyone other than McMann to join the lineup, someone has to go to the AHL.

To complicate that issue:

It is very interesting that a player has been recalled. I'd almost say strange if it wasn't for Jake McCabe taking a puck to the head in the last game. The Leafs clearly like Rifai, though, so getting him in some practices would be useful for them to judge his progress in the minors. He has two NHL appearances from last season on the road against St. Louis and Arizona.

The other injured are inching closer to return:

David Kämpf was also skating. Calle Järnkrok is out long term. But it looks like none of these players are ready today (why would you hurry anyone back for a Chicago game?)

Forward lines at morning skate were unchanged, only the defence was realigned and featured Phil Myers with Rifai as an extra.

As mentioned elsewhere, expect to see the five-forward power play continue on from the last game.

Lines

From morning skate as reported by various people

Matthew Knies - Auston Matthews - William Nylander
Pontus Holmberg - John Tavares - Mitch Marner
Nicholas Robertson - Fraser Minten - Steven Lorentz
Nikita Grebenkin - Connor Dewar - Alex Nylander

Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Chris Tanev
Morgan Rielly - Phil Myers
Simon Benoit - Conor Timmins

Anthony Stolarz - starter
Joe Woll

The Game

This is a "next-gen" game, so that means those special jerseys will be on display. It's on Prime though, so it still should be possible to read the numbers.

Game Coverage