New York Islanders @ Toronto Maple Leafs
07:00 PM at Scotiabank Arena
Watch on: SN, CBC, SN1, MSGSN2

The Leafs last game was away on December 20 against the Buffalo Sabres, which Toronto won by a score of 6-3 in regulation. The Leafs have a record of 21-10-2 for a 0.667 Points %.

The New York Islanders last played away on December 17 against the Carolina Hurricanes. The Islanders lost by a score of 4-0 in regulation, and their current league record is 12-14-7 for a 0.470 Points %.

Them

The Islanders have been having a quiet existential crisis while the other New York State teams have been doing it loudly. They are underperforming, the coach has been calling out the team, but the Rangers have drowned them out to the point that they have to be wondering what they have to do to get in on the trade rumours. They are also coming off days of rest while the Leafs are very much not.

To the extent that the team has success it's almost entirely due to shot quality. They are as bad as the Leafs by Corsi and Expected Goals % (Evolving Hockey). Both teams are in the bottom third by Corsi, but are 15th and 16th by Expected Goals with a hair over 50.

They get there by the same path. Lousy offensive pace and middling defensive numbers by Expected Goals that are worse judged by Corsi Against.

The Islanders are chipping away at this base mediocrity with one of the lowest all-situations shooting percentages in the league and a poor goaltending result.

Their heavily used starter, Ilya Sorokin, has two Goals Saved Above Expected (Moneypuck) on the year. Semyon Varlamov, who has been taking the rest of the starts is one below. That level of play gets you average at best results. Varlamov is on IR, where he spends a lot of time, so Marcus Hogberg has come in and been good in two starts.

I don't think you have to look any further than the roster construction for the answer to why they don't score. Anders Lee, who popped up in the Sick Hands article with the worst ever performance last season by Goals over Expected, or in his case under, leads the team in goals scored this year and is only two under expected. He's not the problem. That he and Kyle Palmieri are the team leaders in goals and scoring the least under expected is.

Pierre Engvall, who played in their last game is sitting this one out per morning skate.

Lines

Lines via Andrew Gross

Anthony Duclair - Brock Nelson - Kyle Palmieri
Anders Lee - Mathew Barzal - Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Maxim Tsyplakov - Bo Horvat - Simon Holmstrom
Kyle MacLean - Casey Cizikas - Hudson Fasching

Alexander Romanov - Noah Dobson
Adam Pelech - Ryan Pulock
Isaiah George - Scott Mayfield

Ilya Sorokin - starter
Marcus Hogberg

Us

There will likely be minor changes to the lineup and we can assume Joe Woll is starting.

A few seasons back the Leafs started out the year with a pretty good Corsi %, and decently high side of middling Corsi Against and absolutely abysmal Expected Goals Against. Now, you recall the pre-McCabe seasons, which I think this was, and there was a genuine and fairly extreme problem of in-zone defending. You could have at the time made a story that explained that disparity out of that problem and have concluded the Leafs were actually bad.

This season, early on – so 15 or so games in, not the first week – the Leafs had a low side of middling Corsi %, absolutely abysmal Corsi Against and a really good (top 4 or 5) Expected Goals Against. And so began the story that they are just that good at in-zone defending.

I've written hundreds of these previews now, and nearly every one starts with the team table on Evolving Hockey and a look at those percentages, the component parts and the details of where the teams' goals for and against come from, and I can say with confidence that if there is a large disparity between the ranking in Corsi (for or against) and Expected Goals, it's going to disappear.

That doesn't mean there isn't something to the stories about in-zone defending. But when randomness magnifies a genuine aspect of team play – in this case, likely the happenstance of the order in which the opponents are faced in the season – the temptation to assign all the credit or blame to the team is extremely strong. And I think that's what's happened here again.

The Leafs aren't very good defensively. You simply cannot say that about a team that is 20th in Corsi Against at five-on-five. And the volume of shots against is the overwhelmingly large portion of Expected Goals Against. The two things are going to come together, and it's going to trend towards the shot count. There's more of them, and because there are more shots, they have less randomness in them. This is why all shots or Corsi is much more meaningful that Shots on Goal.

The Leafs likely will continue to be a bit higher up the rankings – into genuine mediocrity like the Islanders – in Expected Goals Against than Corsi Against because Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe are actually much better than the defenders they've replaced. But the Leafs aren't going to roar back up to the top echelon of xGA unless they get the shots against down too. That early xG number was an illusion. Back in the day when they seemed so bad? They ended up in the muddy middle eventually.

The same effect could be at play with the even smaller bits of things that get reported like slot shots, inner slot shots, rush chances against. There's so few of these in 20 or 30 games played that relying on them as anything more than descriptions of what has happened is likely to lead to disappointment.

"Before I draw nearer to that stone to which you point," said Scrooge, "answer me one question. Are these the shadows of the things that Will be, or are they shadows of things that May be, only?"
Still, the Ghost pointed downward to the grave by which it stood.
"Men's courses will foreshadow certain ends, to which, if persevered in, they must lead," said Scrooge. "But if the courses be departed from, the ends will change. Say it is thus with what you show me."
The Spirit was immovable as ever.

Lines

Last night's game, and almost certainly to be changed.

This is roster management to maximize the time he spends not in games or on the NHL roster to hold off the expiration of his waiver exemption.

Matthew Knies - Auston Matthews - Mitch Marner
Max Pacioretty - John Tavares - William Nylander
Bobby McMann - Max Domi - Nicholas Robertson
Pontus Holmberg - David Kämpf - Steven Lorentz

Morgan Rielly - Conor Timmins
Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Chris Tanev
Simon Benoit - Jake McCabe

Joe Woll
Dennis Hildeby

The Game

The Leafs need to pick the course that can lead to the end they desire.

Game Coverage