We have now entered that period of the Leafs season where every loss cues up the offseason "rip it all down" talk and every goal against is proof the Leafs likely won't even make the playoffs.

No one is ripping it all down, and no the Leafs aren't missing the playoffs. Really unlikely things can happen sometimes, but this isn't one of them.

Speaking of, Calgary is on tap for green suits day this evening.

Since yesterday was Sunday and there is no news at this time of the year, I'm going to dig into to topics that annoy, er, um, that crop up a lot.

Other years Matthews would have scored there

I did a short form of this in a GDT, but I personally find looking right at the reality of failing to score goals in the NHL illuminating. Because, no, he wouldn't have scored that. Not all that often.

Over his career in the NHL, Auston Matthews has shot the puck (all shots or Corsi) 21.39 times per 60 minutes in all-situations. Two players have shot the puck at a higher rate over that period, and they are David Pastrnak and Alex Ovechkin. Filip Forsberg is tied with Matthews.

In terms of raw numbers it's 4,342 individual shots. He didn't score on very many of those. His rate of individual Corsi this season is 21.34, which is ninth. Ovechkin leads with 25.9.

Prior to this year Matthews shot the puck 3,967 times, and of those shots 3,187 didn't get blocked. Of those unblocked shots only 2,272 became shots on goal. He missed 915 times.

Of those shots that were judged to be on goal, he scored 368 times. He failed to score 1,904 times.

This is the core reality of hockey. Failure. Repeated failure. If you even get to the puck and don't fan on it, it might get blocked or you'll miss and even if you don't, the goalie gets it the overwhelming majority of the time.

To be great is to rise above that failure. Especially when it's hard.

Now I'm not saying Matthews is fine, but he's shooting at normal volume, from his usual locations, and he's just not scoring as often. He's also 33rd in the entire NHL in Goals per 60 minutes in all-situations for players with at least 300 minutes.

He plays a lot of minutes, and he shoots a lot more than almost everyone else, and as long as he had one of the highest shooting percentages in the NHL, everyone could kind of not notice how much volume impacted his goal rate. His skills in creating offence – often ending in his own shots – are what keeps him an elite player even while whatever is wrong with his shot is wrong. That shot rate and location and creation are rare and valuable skills.

And even with his problem scoring, he is still an above average shooter by shooting percentage.

If you constantly set up the false expectation that he will score on every chance, you will be exaggerating the change this year, grossly overstating the problem and setting up a condition where everyone starts to believe he's now David Kämpf or something.

The Leafs Power Play

It's so broken too! Oh no!

I hate PP% so much, I can't even begin to tell you how much other than to say it's barely less useless than plus/minus. But that's where I'm starting.

The league average PP% this season is 21.60 which is higher by a hair than it has been in a season where goal scoring overall is lower than it's been lately.

So no, the Leafs are not going to score on every power play. No one does. It's not weird to not score like the TV guys like to tell you. No one gets power-play goals in every game.

Yes the Leafs power play sometimes struggles with the set-up. But... now for some real numbers.

To score on the power play, you have to have a power play. The Leafs are 22nd in the NHL for TOI on the power play. That number is produced by two things: power-play opportunities (PPO) and how quickly you cut the power-play off by taking a penalty or scoring a goal. Their PPO is at 183 and league average is 181.

The Leafs are 10th in the NHL at Goals For per 60 minutes on the power play. They are ahead of the Avalanche, the Capitals, the Stars and the Hurricanes. This season is a little odd because the Oilers don't lead, the Jets do (huh, could that be sh%?), but Vegas and the Devilss, the Lightning and the Panthers are all in the top 10 as you should expect if you've ever really looked at power play scoring before.

Early in the season, the Leafs power play was downright awful and they also scored under their Expected Goals rate by a lot. Now they're 10th in the NHL in Expected Goals per 60 minutes on the power-play, right between the Jets and the Golden Knights.

Shooting talent on the power play is as necessary as a good system. And I've heard Matthews hasn't been scoring as much...

There's also been a bit of a thing lately where the second unit gets talked up a lot. They've sure looked busy, but they don't score much. Bobby McMann has three goals and leads that crew. Matthews Knies has 4, but he's been on both units.

John Tavares, William Nylander (9 each) and Auston Matthews (6) lead the Leafs in scoring on the power play. Mitch Marner has 5.

Because a power play scores only 1/5 of the time on average, it's very easy for a team to go whole games or short runs of games where it doesn't work.

Expecting every five-on-three to score is going to get you disappointed. Expecting timely power-play goals is going to do the same thing. Just like with all other goal scoring it comes in a random distribution.

The Leafs power play is one of the key drivers of their success this year because it is as good as it is. Even with Auston Matthews' problems. The main reason they're scoring the amount they are is the number of gifted shooters on the Leafs.

So if you think the power play is bad, it's possible they didn't score when you wanted them to, not that they never score.

Things resembling news

Maple Leafs season-ticket holders cry foul as club uses data from resale market to raise prices
A loyal Leafs fan was dismayed when his account representative told him why his tickets were going up to about $11,900 plus tax, an increase of about 9 per cent for next season
The Globe and MailSimon Houpt

Honestly, the rest of what's out there is that one blog doing stuff on Scott Laughton like he was seriously hurt, another one wanting Marlies players recalled (they have no cap space to recall anyone) and there's just nothing going on.

Oh, have some Easton Cowan:

I'd add some stuff about the PK, but it's impossible to sort that out from goaltending IMO. Suffice it to say it's about league average and neither a help nor a hindrance.

Preview later today, until then, keep calm and carry on.

From The Branches