Whenever a Maple Leaf signs a contract, you'll be bombarded with a lot of people telling you that it is the single dumbest trade in hockey history. That's not to say that there aren't some issues with his contract. It's a divisive signing but it's hardly a millstone. It was the same song and dance when Grabovski signed (which makes no sense but here we are) when the truth is that the odds that the deal will go that badly are probably long.
But since you're likely to see "Lupul makes more than John Tavares! LOLOLOL" or some variation on that uninformed chirp we should take a look at what names will probably crop up. The table below is drawn from CapGeek and shows the 20 closest comparable contracts. This group is organized by the percentage of the upper boundary of the salary cap that their cap hit represents in the first year of the deal (Cap Pct). This addition to CapGeek comes courtesy of Draglikepull (but not draglikepull2) who made an app to show a better way to look at cap hit deals.
| Name | Age | Team | Length | Start | Expiry | Cap Hit | Cap Pct | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ales Hemsky | 29 | EDM | 2 | 2012 | 2014 | $5,000,000 | 7.12% | $250,000 |
| James Neal | 25 | PIT | 6 | 2012 | 2018 | $5,000,000 | 7.12% | $250,000 |
| Evander Kane | 21 | WIN | 6 | 2012 | 2018 | $5,250,000 | 7.48% | $0 |
| David Krejci | 26 | BOS | 3 | 2012 | 2015 | $5,250,000 | 7.48% | $0 |
| Shane Doan | 36 | PHO | 4 | 2012 | 2016 | $5,300,000 | 7.55% | $50,000 |
| Patrice Bergeron | 27 | BOS | 3 | 2011 | 2014 | $5,000,000 | 7.78% | $250,000 |
| Mikhail Grabovski | 28 | TOR | 5 | 2012 | 2017 | $5,500,000 | 7.83% | $250,000 |
| John Tavares | 22 | NYI | 6 | 2012 | 2018 | $5,500,000 | 7.83% | $250,000 |
| Joffrey Lupul | 29 | TOR | 5 | 2013 | 2018 | $5,250,000 | 8.16% | $0 |
| Jeff Carter | 28 | LAK | 11 | 2011 | 2022 | $5,272,727 | 8.20% | $22,727 |
| Tomas Plekanec | 30 | MTL | 6 | 2010 | 2016 | $5,000,000 | 8.42% | $250,000 |
| Ryan Kesler | 28 | VAN | 6 | 2010 | 2016 | $5,000,000 | 8.42% | $250,000 |
| Bobby Ryan | 25 | ANA | 5 | 2010 | 2015 | $5,100,000 | 8.59% | $150,000 |
| Martin St. Louis | 37 | TBL | 4 | 2011 | 2015 | $5,625,000 | 8.75% | $375,000 |
| Martin Havlat | 31 | SAN | 6 | 2009 | 2015 | $5,000,000 | 8.80% | $250,000 |
| Brian Gionta | 34 | MTL | 5 | 2009 | 2014 | $5,000,000 | 8.80% | $250,000 |
| Jeff Skinner | 20 | CAR | 6 | 2013 | 2019 | $5,725,000 | 8.90% | $475,000 |
| Marian Hossa | 34 | CHI | 12 | 2009 | 2021 | $5,275,000 | 9.29% | $25,000 |
| Jason Pominville | 30 | BUF | 5 | 2009 | 2014 | $5,300,000 | 9.33% | $50,000 |
| Phil Kessel | 25 | TOR | 5 | 2009 | 2014 | $5,400,000 | 9.51% | $150,000 |
| Shawn Horcoff | 34 | EDM | 6 | 2009 | 2015 | $5,500,000 | 9.68% | $250,000 |
As you can see by the table, Lupul's the ninth lowest by that measure. Grabovski, obviously, does well by this measure. However, the table has a few players that shouldn't be included. Lupul was going to be an unrestricted free agent this summer so he had the added leverage of being able to wait until that point when he'd be able to talk to all 30 teams instead of just one. Restricted free agents, however, are left with much less leverage. They cannot offer their services on the open market and have to rely on another team presenting them with an offer sheet - except that NHL GMs are mostly afraid of rocking the boat - so their salaries are depressed. On the list above James Neal, Evander Kane, David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, John Tavares, Bobby Ryan, Ryan Kesler, Jeff Carter, and Phil Kessel were RFAs at the time that they signed their deal. So if we're looking at true contract comparables we'd want to look at the table below:
| Name | Age | Team | Length | Start | Expiry | Cap Hit | Cap Pct | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ales Hemsky | 29 | EDM | 2 | 2012 | 2014 | $5,000,000 | 7.12% | $250,000 |
| Shane Doan | 36 | PHO | 4 | 2012 | 2016 | $5,300,000 | 7.55% | $50,000 |
| Mikhail Grabovski | 28 | TOR | 5 | 2012 | 2017 | $5,500,000 | 7.83% | $250,000 |
| Joffrey Lupul | 29 | TOR | 5 | 2013 | 2018 | $5,250,000 | 8.16% | $0 |
| Tomas Plekanec | 30 | MTL | 6 | 2010 | 2016 | $5,000,000 | 8.42% | $250,000 |
| Martin St. Louis | 37 | TBL | 4 | 2011 | 2015 | $5,625,000 | 8.75% | $375,000 |
| Martin Havlat | 31 | SAN | 6 | 2009 | 2015 | $5,000,000 | 8.80% | $250,000 |
| Brian Gionta | 34 | MTL | 5 | 2009 | 2014 | $5,000,000 | 8.80% | $250,000 |
| Marian Hossa | 34 | CHI | 12 | 2009 | 2021 | $5,275,000 | 9.29% | $25,000 |
| Jason Pominville | 30 | BUF | 5 | 2009 | 2014 | $5,300,000 | 9.33% | $50,000 |
| Shawn Horcoff | 34 | EDM | 6 | 2009 | 2015 | $5,500,000 | 9.68% | $250,000 |
Now that we have our control group, let's take a look at the points per game that the players put up in the two seasons prior to signing their new deals as well as their age when they signed the deals (note: the age thing is approximate):
| Name | PPG | Age At Signing |
|---|---|---|
| Martin St. Louis | 1.18 | 35 |
| Marian Hossa | 0.94 | 30 |
| Martin Havlat | 0.90 | 27 |
| Jason Pominville | 0.89 | 26 |
| Joffrey Lupul | 0.82 | 29 |
| Shawn Horcoff | 0.77 | 31 |
| Mikhail Grabovski | 0.74 | 28 |
| Shane Doan | 0.73 | 36 |
| Brian Gionta | 0.69 | 29 |
| Ales Hemsky | 0.67 | 28 |
| Tomas Plekanec | 0.66 | 28 |
Again, Lupul looks good by this metric. His PPG production fits in with the group as does the age at which he signed the deal. Obviously, this is a simplistic measure as it doesn't look at how each player put up the points or whether they will/would continue to be given the same opportunities in the future. The assumption is that at this age, the player is in the current role for which he is being signed so there isn't an expectation that a player that has been given top three or six minutes prior to signing will suddenly stop receiving those opportunities. Or vice versa I guess.
| Name | PPG | Rank | Cap Hit | Cap Pct | 2013-14 Cap | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Horcoff | 0.77 | 6 | $5,500,000 | 9.68% | $6,224,240 | 1 |
| Jason Pominville | 0.89 | 4 | $5,300,000 | 9.33% | $5,999,190 | 2 |
| Marian Hossa | 0.94 | 2 | $5,275,000 | 9.29% | $5,973,470 | 3 |
| Martin Havlat | 0.90 | 3 | $5,000,000 | 8.80% | $5,658,400 | 4 |
| Brian Gionta | 0.69 | 9 | $5,000,000 | 8.80% | $5,658,400 | 5 |
| Martin St. Louis | 1.18 | 1 | $5,625,000 | 8.75% | $5,626,250 | 6 |
| Tomas Plekanec | 0.66 | 11 | $5,000,000 | 8.42% | $5,414,060 | 7 |
| Joffrey Lupul | 0.82 | 5 | $5,250,000 | 8.16% | $5,246,880 | 8 |
| Mikhail Grabovski | 0.74 | 7 | $5,500,000 | 7.83% | $5,034,690 | 9 |
| Shane Doan | 0.73 | 8 | $5,300,000 | 7.55% | $4,854,650 | 10 |
| Ales Hemsky | 0.67 | 10 | $5,000,000 | 7.12% | $4,578,160 | 11 |
Again, it's simplistic but if you're looking at the market based on boxcar stats then this deal fits in the market. The key is that I think that's a fair assumption of how the market is viewed among the majority of fans and some pundits:
All #Leafs media wil block you now. RT @nealsorochan: hemsky 429gp - 367pts, lupul 441gp-289 pts.Since lockout.
— David Staples (@dstaples) January 20, 2013
What a shock. So let's agree that while we understand that there are a number of other metrics that can be used to compare this pool of players that by the one that most fans will use it's not that bad of a deal. Of course, once we dig in it may not be as flattering of a comparison but at least this gives a better picture of CapGeek's list of 20 comparable contracts.