Maple Leafs Sign Blake Smith to ELC

Thursday afternoon, Toronto continued their undrafted free agent prospect signing spree and dipped into the OHL. They announced they have signed a 6'5", 225 lb 20 year old defenseman from Flint to an ELC—welcome to the Maple Leafs organization, Blake!

There isn't a lot of info about him that I can quickly find. I can see he was a teammate of Sam McCue's in Flint for the second half of this year, but I honestly never noticed him while watching their games. When the announcement was posted, I did a "who?"

But here's what I can find. Per the Elite Prospects 2023 draft guide, he's a big defenseman who plays physical but is a good skater. His offensive instincts, at least back in 2023, were not great. He was neither a good passer nor a good puck handler. Here's what the draft guide outlined the area of interest, but also concerns:

Smith’s interesting because it’s not as simple as the size plus a little bit of skating. He can make and take passes in motion, uses space before shooting, looks for teammates in the slot when given space, and even tries some creative plays. The shot and hands are a below-average projection. He’s a vulnerable defender. Prone to getting manipulated, despite his relatively advanced defensive posture for this level (chest up, knees bent, few crossovers, wide stance). He over-commits but shows some corrective ability. He’s not a pick for us, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a team picks him.

As such, Smith’s a long-term projection. His mobility, size, and desire to make plays give him a chance, especially if the reads, awareness, and puck skills take a step or two.

The question now is, how much has he improved since then?

Per a scout on Twitter who has access to tracking data, Smith was 5th in the entire OHL in average TOI at 26:37 so he was a workhorse. And despite having very defensive-focused deployment, he had a positive overall effect on the teams CF% and xGF% on a below average team. He was tied for the most goals by defensemen on the team, but also didn't shoot at a high rate and had a high shooting percentage for his career and for a defenseman.

I'm just guessing based on those metrics and that he led the team in +/-, that he did improve defensively from being easier to manipulate and beat by opposing forwards. Whether that means he's now a defensive star or not, we'll have to wait and see how he fares as a pro. We don't even know if he'll wind up being an everyday AHL or ECHL guy yet, but I'd lean towards the ECHL just based on the numbers game.

So there you go. He's big, he skates well, that's the big hope for him if you want to have any in such an unknown signing who's turning 21 later this year.

I'll work on adding some highlights of his later.

EDIT: Alright, I've had a chance to look at some of Smith's offensive highlights at least, though you can see some offense that came from his defense. The quick conclusions I can draw from the video clips below is that it does look like Smith is a very good skater which is a good combo to have with his size.

I would also say that the scouting report back in Smith's draft year for 2023 was pretty accurate – he did develop much better puck skills as a passer and puck handler. I wouldn't say it's gotten to the point where I would consider him to be capable of quarter backing a powerplay, but I think he can be a defensive minded defender who is not a complete liability to handle the puck.

I wouldn't put Smith down as a likely NHLer, even as a bottom pairing PK guy, but I could see it as a possibility if he is one of the few players who is capable of still making meaningful improvements to his game as his age. There are always a lot more unremembered undrafted players signed as free agents who don't. Hey, Bobby McMann and others like him did, so it's not impossible!