Maple Leafs Prospect Report: WHL Check-In

Toronto hasn't had a lot of high draft picks in recent years. The ones they have made are either in the OHL (Cowan, Danford), or they've already turned pro (Minten, Knies). So these prospect updates I've written recently have been an exercise in talking about generally unexciting mid to late round picks.

But if there's one league this year that's been showcasing some of Toronto's more interesting late round picks, it's the WHL. So let's talk about a fifth, sixth, and seventh round pick of the Leafs that have been making names for themselves – even if they haven't had a major coming out party just yet.

Miroslav Holinka

I wrote about Holinka back in November, after he had gone through his initial adjustment period in North America and looked to be heating up in terms of production. Since then, he's been hovering just below a point per game pace in the middle six for Edmonton. Going into the World Juniors, he had 10 goals and 21 points in 23 games, averaged just over two shots per game, and led his team in +/-.

Maple Leafs Prospect Report: Miroslav Holinka Is Heating Up

Holinka started a bit slow but has really played strong over the last couple of weeks, both offensively and defensively.

PPP LeafsBrian S

At the World Juniors, he was often used as the 1C or 2C for Czechia, and had a respectable 4 points in 7 games for their bronze medal run. He was used in a very similar role – not as an offensive driver, but being the defensive conscience on a line to help them limit time on defense, and play more on offense. He averaged 17:45 of ice time and was used in all situations.

Since returning to Edmonton in the WHL, Holinka has had a bigger opportunity for most of the games as their top center has missed time with an injury. In the 13 games post-WJC, Holinka has 14 points in 13 games and has had his best single game performances of the year – including putting up four points in a game twice in this span.

His tracking data reflects a lot of what I said in the last prospect update I did in November: his strengths this year mostly lies in his defense and acting as a two-way centre. He drives good transitions, and is a decent offensive threat. A lot of his 'weaknesses' lies in the little things that aren't as easy to quantify or assess in an eye test. Those little details are things I think he can be capable of, but he'll need to work on his board play, his off-puck play on offense, etc. Those are details a large and strong development team can help him work on.

I do think he's showing a lot of signs in improving through this season in pretty noteworthy ways. His offensive generation has definitely improved a lot, as have his ability to successfully transition the puck up the ice. I do definitely think that was just a matter of feeling comfortable in a league with a different style of play – in any international games that he's played, he's looked more effective offensively. His defense has been top tier all season, and that's very much the backbone of his value. Honestly, one of the most impressive stats is that he has such a strong defensive impact but only has 6 penalty minutes all year. If his offense and details continue to get stronger through this season, that will be a great sign for him.

Noah Chadwick

Chadwick was one of the more noteworthy breakout prospects last season. When he was drafted, he had the reputation for being big, an awkward skater, but showing some untapped offensive potential. In his D+1 season that offensive potential was realized, and he made significant improvements to basically every part of his game. He improved enough to be on the periphery of Hockey Canada's roster selection process for the World Juniors, though he did not make the final shortlist much less the final roster.

So far this season, Chadwick has looked much the same. His tracking data may look slightly different but honestly I wouldn't pay any attention to the "drop" in some of his offense. With 11 goals and 41 points in 48 games, he has an identical point per game pace to last season. But he's going to easily surpass his goal totals from last year (12). His production has been more heavily coming on the powerplay this year, which wouldn't be captured in the tracking data.

Defensively, he's still a mixed bag. On the one hand, he's showing a great ability to neutralize cycles using a combination of size and good stickwork, though he's still not very physical. The problems all come back to the same major issue he's had since he was drafted: his skating. It does look like he's at least improved his ability to pivot quickly without tripping over himself, but straight speed can still beat him. He has good ability to anticipate play and make sure he has good positioning, then use his reach to make up the difference speedier skaters may have. But he can still get beat, and at higher levels he's only going to face fast and faster opponents.

It's the same thing I said about William Villeneuve back in the day – he'll go as far as he can improve his skating, and that's a really hard thing to improve enough when you're starting so far behind where you need to be. He'll likely finish this season as one of the best defensemen in the WHL, hopefully after a deep playoff run, and then we'll see him on the Marlies.

Nathan Mayes

I only just wrote a full update on Mayes a couple of weeks ago, which you can read in full here:

Maple Leaf Prospect Report: Nathan Mayes

The tall left-handed defenseman has emerged as one of the better late round picks Toronto made in the later rounds last year.

PPP LeafsBrian S

There isn't much more to add since then. His production has stayed pretty much the same, but the one thing that did change since I mentioned how he hadn't taken many penalties is... he started taking more penalties. More of the major variety (fighting), but there's been an uptick of minors as well.

Otherwise, he continues to look like one of the most improved prospects in Toronto's system. I honestly wouldn't consider him that far behind Chadwick at this point, even if they're very different in terms of their strengths and weaknesses. That's a combination of me not thinking Chadwick is as good as others might, because his point production in junior hides a lot of problems he'll face as a pro, and because I think he's very underrated right now as most people don't know about him. He doesn't have the eye-popping stats that many need to take any prospect seriously.

Thanks for reading!

I put a lot of work into my prospect articles here, both for the draft and Toronto's prospects. I do it as a fun hobby for me, and I'd probably do it in some capacity even if PPP completely ceased to exist. But if you like reading my work, some support would go a long way! I pay for a few streaming services (CHL, NCAA, USHL, the occasional TSN options for international tournaments that are broadcast) to be able to reliably watch these prospects in good quality streams. I also pay for some prospect-specific resources, such as tracking data and scouting reports from outlets like Elite Prospects, Future Considerations, McKeen's Hockey, The Athletic, and more.

Being able to get paid for this helps me dedicate more time and resources to it, rather than to second/third jobs. And whatever money I make here, a lot of I reinvest back into my prospect work through in those streaming and scouting services. Like I said, I'd be doing whatever I can afford for this anyway, so any financial help I get through this is greatly appreciated!