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This summer, one of the later round draft picks that stood out the most was Miroslav Holinka. He got a call out from Hayley Wickenheiser, and even before that point I had him as one of the most interesting sounding prospects from Toronto's draft. Here's what I wrote about him before any of the prospect camps started:
Brian S
At this point, Holinka has played in a bunch of prospect camps, rookie tournaments, international exhibitions, and attended Toronto's pre-season camp for a bit. He's also started his WHL season with the Edmonton Oil Kings, and has played in 15 games for them.
So let's talk about how he's looked in a brand new league and environment.
STATS & CONTEXT
When Holinka joined Edmonton in the WHL, he started as their top line center. However, as soon as all their NHL drafted prospects were sent back to junior, he was bumped down to the second or even third line center, as well as the second power play unit at times. In the past month or so, he's firmly settled in a situation where he's either a 2A or a 2B line center, and is on the top power play. He's also a regular penalty killer, but not necessarily their go-to guy while short handed.
At even strength, he gets deployed more on the fly. If there is a faceoff to win and the top line isn't being sent out, Edmonton is mostly sending out a checking line with Marshall Finnie – who was an invite to Toronto's development camp this summer. That's not a knock on Holinka as a faceoff guy or on his defense – he has a 55% faceoff win percentage, and leads his team in +/- while being used in important situations. But Finnie is a 61% guy, and his line's usage and identity is very much a physical, defensive checking line.
More recently, Holinka and Finnie's lines merged. Finnie has been used on Holinka's wing on a second line. Finnie seems to take most (but not all) of the faceoffs, while Holinka plays the natural center position during play. While Edmonton's coach is not at Dale Hunter's level of frequency in mixing up lines pretty dramatically, he's not that far behind either outside of their top line.
Regardless of his usage, there are signs that Holinka is starting to learn and adjust to how hockey is played in the WHL compared to Czechia's junior and pro leagues. After his first 9 games, he had 4 goals and 3 assists while averaging under two shots per game. In the last 6 games, he has 6 goals and 4 assists while averaging over three shots per game. He leads the team in goals, is tied for third on the team in points but tied for second in terms of points per game. All of the teammates who are tied or ahead of him have more power play points and are on the top line at even strength, while Holinka has been a second/third line tweener and hasn't always been a top PP guy.
Honestly, I'd say he's been a bit unlucky in his point production too. All but one of his assists were primary, and he is not a bad passer or playmaker. Half of his assists have come on the power play, and I think if he had better wingers around him he could have a couple more so far this season at even strength. But in general, I think he'll be a guy that has a pretty even goals-to-assists ratio.
SCOUTING REPORT
I generally don't like using comparables for prospects, especially to established NHLers. There is so much different from how teenagers look to fully physically and mentally mature stars. But, I have been having the thought recently that Holinka seems like a poor man's Fraser Minten.
Now, that's not a perfect one-to-one comparison, but there are similarities in some of their playing styles and strengths – specifically, in their shot and in their two-way play as centers.
Let's talk about his shot first. It is a legitimate weapon, not unlike Fraser Minten's became over his junior career. Holinka has a variety of strengths to his shooting mechanics. It can be quick, powerful, accurate, and heavy. He can wind up fully for a wrist shot, blast a one timer, or flick a quick snapshot off. Most importantly, he can mix and match all of those styles and mechanics together depending on the situation.
Holinka (#92) Shooting Highlights
Holinka's playmaking, while not necessarily his biggest strength, is still pretty good. He has good vision and can make quick, hard passes through an open lane. Funnily enough, his shot also contributes to his playmaking. As quick and hard as it is, he often creates rebounds for his teammates to score off of because goalies often can't cleanly handle his shot. I'm assuming his shot, playmaking and shooting-as-playmaking is why he plays on the trigger spot on the point during power plays.
Holinka (#92) Assists
Then there's the two-way play. Holinka is a solid center who does have a good feel for what he needs to do, and where he needs to be on the ice to support the play as a center. With the puck, he will support the breakout and typically stays higher in the offensive zone rather than chasing deep into the corners, unless it is to support a winger fighting for a loose puck. This style is something I had noticed from Minten as well, especially when he played a more defensive third/second line role on Kamloops behind their top offensive stars. But it also works well for his offensive strengths – see what I said about his positioning on the power play, where the same principle holds.
Without the puck, he'll support the defensemen down low to make a defensive play, and he's often the first forward back to cover for a pinching defender. Also like Minten, he does play a good physical game. That doesn't mean he's throwing his weight around very often, and doesn't typically chase hits. He's not a goon, nor is he really a 'power' forward like a Matthew Knies. But he's good with stick lifts and positional play, which is why he's also used on the penalty kill and to defend leads late in the game.
Holinka (#92) defensive plays
CONCERNS & DEVELOPMENT GOALS
Let's talk about the weight that "poor man's" is holding in my comparison to Fraser Minten. I love Minten as a prospect, and for a second rounder he's come along nicely. I think he will make a solid third line center in the NHL, with the potential to be a low end 2C that's carried by better wingers. So, if that's what I'm saying I think Minten's level is, what does that mean for what I think Holinka's potential is if I see him as a lesser version of that kind player?
That's what my concern for Holinka is currently. He does things that I like for players to do, and he does them well. But he hasn't yet started to do them at a high enough level where I currently consider him to be a legit NHL prospect. Right now, I think the ceiling of his NHL potential is of a similar level of, say, a Pontus Holmberg.
All that said, what do I think Holinka needs to do in order to consider a higher potential? I'll summarize the list as: skating, playmaking, and general improvements across the board.
I'll start with the skating. It's not bad, but I only see his ability to move around the ice as having average potential. If he wants to be able to make a bigger impact as a pro in the AHL and especially the NHL, he needs to become a better skater – more powerful acceleration, more controlled and elusive foot and edgework, and better top speed. Toronto has the resources to help this kind of thing. While I wouldn't expect significant improvements at his age, every little bit better he gets in this area is important.
Next is his playmaking, which I use here to mean both passing but also puck handling. When drafted, he had the reputation for being a guy that had some nifty mittens in Czechia's junior league, but he struggled to be that effective at their pro level. During the various prospect camps in the off-season, we got some glimpses of it... but it wasn't something that came out much during the two games against Montreal's prospect squad.
The issue seems to be that while he has skill enough to dangle through guys at a lower tier junior league, he doesn't have a high enough skill to pull it off against better competition. I said at some point that he needs to learn to simplify his game and adjust to North American hockey, and slowly start working in the skill when he can have some better judgment of when it can work and when it's not worth trying it. So far, I think Edmonton has been having him do just that. He is playing a pretty simplified game, relying on his two-way and off puck play and then his shot to be effective. I hope, over this season, that I can start seeing him execute higher level skilled plays on a more consistent basis.
The reason why is because I think that will unlock more of his passing. Right now, he's making good and simple passes, which is still important. But there is potential for him to be able to break defenses down and create better, more dangerous passing opportunities with higher end puck handling.
The rest is all down to general, across the board improvements. The better he gets in any area, the better his realistic potential can become. The better his defense, off puck play, shot, penalty killing, physical play, and power play impact all get, the more likely he can become a useful depth NHLer that you can be happy with.
The reason why it's taken me this long to write a prospect report on Holinka is because, to start the season, I just wanted to see more of that potential come through. I think the past two weeks are indicating he's getting close to that breakthrough level.
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