Maple Leafs Prospect Report: AHL Check-In

Blah blah introduction paragraph blah blah. Yes, left here intentionally. Let's get to it:

Fraser Minten

Minten has been one of Toronto's top prospects for a few years now, but always a bit polarizing. I've always gotten the impression that, despite being a second round pick, people have always expected first-round talent and results from him. This season has been very interesting to see him make his AHL debut, and return for some stretches to the NHL as a 20 year old.

Minten's results have been mixed. In the AHL, he quickly became one of the most relied upon forwards on the team. In his first stretch before being called up to the NHL, he was playing 20+ minutes per game – top even strength, and plenty of time on the powerplay and penalty kill. He has been playing the same reliable two-way game that was his calling card from junior.

On the other hand, many will look at his production and shrug. He has 10 points in 17 games in the AHL, a point per game rate that puts him 20th in the league among other players his age. The funny thing is though, early in the year he had two assists weirdly not credited to him even though it seemed extremely obvious that he had a touch. Bump his point totals up to 11 or 12 in those 17 games, and suddenly his point rate puts him in the same range of top prospects who were also second or late first round picks.

In the NHL, Minten has 4 points in 15 games which puts him 19th as far as point per game pace. He's also one of only 39 players who are 20 years or younger to play in the NHL at all this year. So while his production and fancy stats don't look stellar, the fact that he was playing in a meaningful amount of games and minutes at all at his age is itself significant.

If you're disappointed that he isn't producing or having an impact in the NHL at the same level as some of the true top prospects in his age group, I'd say the problem is more your unreasonable expectations than with Minten himself. He is showing valuable progression, and while he isn't fully ready to take over the 3C role for Toronto yet, you can bet it isn't far off.

Nikita Grebenkin

Grebenkin is the leader in the entire Toronto Maple Leafs organization in vibes. He overcame a lot to get where he is now – originally undrafted in his first year of eligibility, he was taken as a 5th round pick out of the MHL (Russia's junior league). That's not typically a recipe for finding a future NHL player of any type, but all Greb has done in his young career is defy odds.

Following Greb's career has been a lesson in the importance of seeing real, significant improvements and progression in development after being picked. He bulked up a too-lean frame, he improved his shot dramatically, he learned to use his size and (new) strength to his advantage, and developed a lot of play making and stick handling skills in tight quarters. That allowed him to make an immediate jump, following his draft, to the KHL where he won their rookie of the year award. The next year he won the KHL championship and was named an All-Star.

This year, he made the jump to North America and he hasn't looked out of place. He has 9 goals and 20 points in 33 games so far in the AHL this season, which is good for 47th in the league for U22 players or 30th if you look at points per game. His high energy, highly physical and in-close skill has fit right into the pro leagues of the AHL and NHL. His point per game rate in the AHL is right around Minten's, albeit with double the games played. He hasn't been a true star in the league, but his strengths make him the ideal kind of depth or supporting player.

Most importantly, Greb has already made his NHL debut this year. He's gotten into seven games for the Leafs, but has yet to register any points. He became an immediate fan and team favourite. He threw crushing hits, back-checked his butt off, and dropped some hot memes in his interviews. Like Minten, he isn't quite ready to be a regular NHLer... but that time is coming. He just needs to fine tune his skating a bit to unlock some more explosiveness and agility, and improve his attention to detail so he can adapt better to the speed of play in the NHL. Once he can start tapping into more of his skill there, we'll know he can stick around.

Jacob Quillan

Quillan is basically a lesser version of Fraser Minten. He plays a similar kind of reliable two-way game, but doesn't have the same level of offensive skill to go with it. Nor does he have the same physical advantages of strength and size, not to the same extent anyway. He is a reliable defensive center and has some play driving ability, but so far his offense has been less obvious. He has 22 points in 42 games in the AHL, which is a lower pace than Minten and Grebenkin. He's is also 2 years older, so less likely to see any improvements in his impact.

Now, there are two things Quillan has going for him. First, he has really been coming on lately – he has 11 points in his last 9 games. Second, he has been used in a far lesser role than Greb or Minten, or some of the team's other established veterans (Steeves, Shaw, Nylander, Abruzzese). Quillan has typically been used in a third line role most of the season, and hasn't gotten a lot of powerplay time that I can remember. Only two of his points have been with the man advantage.

Quillan did get called up for one NHL game, but his most noteworthy contribution was drawing a penalty on Cousins from a dirty hit. He may be like an Alex Steeves, which is not quite good enough to be a regular NHLer, but good enough to become an AHL star. I think he has the makeup to be a depth center that can be called up when injuries hit the NHL roster once he fully adjusts to the AHL and becomes as polished as their development team can make him. The organization clearly likes him already, and he already has an NHL contract until the end of next season. Whether he becomes useful NHL depth or not, he'll likely help make an impact on the Marlies by making them a better team, and being someone that Fraser Minten can learn from as another two-way center.

William Villeneuve

It's been a while since I've talked much about Villeneuve. I was a fan of him as a sleeper prospect on the periphery of being a "real boy" when he graduated from junior, but he's been mostly quiet since joining the Marlies three years ago. In his first two seasons he was a depth defenseman at best, behind Toronto's top "prospects" in the AHL like Kokkonen and Niemelä but especially behind their NHL vets they signed to be AHL/NHL depth.

This year Villeneuve has started getting a bit more of a role, at least sometimes. He's taken the first powerplay role from the likes of Niemelä and gotten the occasional game in the top four as well. In fact, in yesterday's game he started on the top pairing with Mermis. Partly because he's gotten this bigger role, and partly because he's been playing well enough to earn that slightly bigger role, he's on a career high pace. He is well ahead of his previous two seasons in the AHL for production rates (0.46 in previous two years vs 0.63 this year).

After not really watching much of the Marlies the past two years, I have noticed some improvements. Villeneuve is a bit quicker, both in terms of his skating and in terms of his decision making. He acts with more confidence, getting involved in the play in small ways to help facilitate the offense. He's more reliable defensively too, he's just all around a bit better. The problem is his skating can still be wonky, even if he's cleaned it up over time. It's the Chadwick issue, where he just gets tangled in his own feet as he has to suddenly shift or pivot.

Has it been enough for him to be considered for a shot in the NHL? Probably not, but I can envisage a scenario where he sticks around after his contract expires this year and in another year or two, and he gets a call up for a game or two because the Leafs/Marlies are decimated by injuries. He may not be the very first option to get the call up, but he's moving himself up that depth chart. I'd say he's surpassed Niemelä pretty clearly at this point, which I would not have expected to ever be a thing. Honestly, I just wanted to give him a shout out as a pretty nice development story for a former fourth round pick to get as far as he did.

Thanks for reading!

I put a lot of work into my prospect articles here, both for the draft and Toronto's prospects. I do it as a fun hobby for me, and I'd probably do it in some capacity even if PPP completely ceased to exist. But if you like reading my work, some support would go a long way! I pay for a few streaming services (CHL, NCAA, USHL, the occasional TSN options for international tournaments that are broadcast) to be able to reliably watch these prospects in good quality streams. I also pay for some prospect-specific resources, such as tracking data and scouting reports from outlets like Elite Prospects, Future Considerations, McKeen's Hockey, The Athletic, and more.

Being able to get paid for this helps me dedicate more time and resources to it, rather than to second/third jobs. And whatever money I make here, a lot of I reinvest back into my prospect work through in those streaming and scouting services. Like I said, I'd be doing whatever I can afford for this anyway, so any financial help I get through this is greatly appreciated!