Toronto Maple Leafs @ Florida Panthers
07:30 PM at Amerant Bank Arena
Watch on: SN, SN1, SCRIPPS
The Leafs last game was at home on November 24 against the Utah Hockey Club, which Toronto won by a score of 3-2 in regulation. The Leafs have a record of 13-6-2 for a 0.667 Points %.
The Florida Panthers last played at home on November 25 against the Washington Capitals. The Panthers lost by a score of 4-1 in regulation, and their current league record is 12-9-1 for a 0.568 Points %.
Them
I don't imagine the Panthers like being behind the Leafs in the standings, and a lot of pride is on the line after three Maple Leafs pick up their Cup rings. That said, they aren't exactly the same team that won it all last year.
The Panthers won the Cup, in part, with a really good Corsi % in the playoffs. Everyone wants to talk about the tough team that forechecks hard or the good defense, but the foundation they built that Cup run on was owning the puck and very good goaltending.
At five-on-five this season, they are good at owning the puck, but not the league leading team they likely need to be to repeat. They are ninth with a Corsi of 52% and the Expected Goals drops to 15th and 51%. They are losing quality mostly on the shots against, but their base number allowed is very low, so that's not a huge weakness.
Their power play is only okay, although they are scoring a little over expected making it, er, okay-er in effect.
Their big glaring problem is in net. Spencer Knight has played in eight games, and he's been a little above average, but Sergei Bobrovsky has been very bad in 15 games. Overall, the Panthers have the second-lowest all-situations save % in the league.
Their big difference from last year is in the quality of the offence and the overall dominance at shotshare. They owned the ice, and this year they are very much like the Leafs in terms of looking awfully busy with the heavy game and not getting a lot of good quality shots. They've been scoring fine, however, so it's a less obvious problem than the goaltending.
Last year at this time, the Panthers had a +11 goal differential and this year it's -1.
Lines
Colby Guy via Daily Faceoff from yesterday.
Evan Rodrigues - Aleksander Barkov - Sam Reinhart
Carter Verhaeghe - Sam Bennett - Matthew Tkachuk
Eetu Luostarinen - Anton Lundell - Mackie Samoskevich
A.J. Greer - Tomas Nosek - Jesper Boqvist
Gustav Forsling - Aaron Ekblad
Niko Mikkola - Dmitry Kulikov
Nate Schmidt - Uvis Balinskis
Sergei Bobrovsky - starter
Spencer Knight
Us
Don't expect Auston Matthews to play tonight, and Matt Knies is still on IR at last word. Max Domi is not even on the road trip to Florida, so something like the lines from the last game is probable.
It doesn't sound like Auston Matthews is quite ready to return to the #leafs lineup tonight. Still needs a few more skates to get back up to speed. Saturday's game in Tampa remains a possibility.
— Chris Johnston (@reporterchris) November 27, 2024
Alex Nylander is with the top Leafs PP unit at morning skate
— Mark Masters (@markhmasters) November 27, 2024
Joins Tavares, Marner, W. Nylander and Rielly
Minten is with the 2nd unit @TSN_Edge
Matthew Knies (upper body) taking part in Leafs skate in a regular sweater
— Mark Masters (@markhmasters) November 27, 2024
Wore red at practice yesterday @TSN_Edge
Anthony Stolarz will get the start against his old friends.
Lines
Projected lines without Matthews.
Bobby McMann - John Tavares - Mitch Marner
Nick Robertson - Pontus Holmberg - William Nylander
Nikita Grebenkin - Fraser Minten - Alex Nylander
Alexander Steeves - Connor Dewar - Steven Lorentz
Morgan Rielly - Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Jake McCabe - Chris Tanev
Simon Benoit - Conor Timmins
Anthony Stolarz - starter
Joe Woll
The Game
The Panthers are a stingy team defensively with a goalie who has something to prove to his former backup. Goals might be hard to come by.
