Mailbag: The New Leafs Season And Also Seriously Brigs What Is Wrong With You

Last Tuesday, I opened the mailbag to more questions. Here are the answers.

1. Why has the FBI let Ted Cruz roam the streets even though it’s common knowledge he’s the Zodiac Killer?--elseldo

This is due to a complex jurisdictional dispute between the San Francisco Police Department, the FBI, and Texas Governor Greg Abbott. The two police forces and the Texas executive branch each insist that it's someone else's job to go arrest Cruz; none of them wants the responsibility of apprehending the Senator/serial killer, because he is icky. As FBI Assistant Director Michael Kortan put it, "Maybe if we ignore him he'll just go away."

2. With Phil Kessel long ago run out of town and Josh Donaldson’s season drawing to a close soon, which fair haired athlete is Simmons going to go after next in an effort to destroy his reputation. Oh no, it’s Nylander, isn’t it?--Goldenhawk99

Oh God, it's definitely Nylander. A super-skilled blond pretty boy whose effort is reputedly inconsistent and who has occasionally shown signs of having a personality? Simmons is never going to tolerate that. Don't eat in public, Willie.

3. Who is your favourite Pokémon?--SuperMaurice

Gengar. First of all, I identify with both its perpetual smirk and the goofy stuff on top of its head. It's so comically menacing.

Second, Gengar is an absolute terror in battle. Three immunities, every HPSA under the sun, gorgeous Sp. Atk. and Speed, and a sleep move? Don't mind if I do. You can sweep two of the Elite Four in RBY with a Lv. 40 Gengar by itself. It's great.

4. I recently learned that Zach Hyman’s nickname, following the formal conventions of hockey nicknames, is Hymie. I can’t unknow this, so I am sharing it. Now, is Hyman going to stick on the Matthews line, or is the grit quotient going to go up there?--KatyaKnappe

The inability of hockey players to come up with good nicknames is the bane of our sport. Hymie? You have the most double-entendre-able name since at least Alex Semin, and a bunch of young men under twenty-five--a subgroup that is literally synonymous with sophomoric humour--settled on "Hymie." Christ.

Anyway: no line is immune to restructuring if it doesn't produce, but Babcock definitely likes Hyman's worker bee style alongside Nylander. Further to that: if Babcock wanted to start the year with Martin winging Matthews, we'd have seen more of it. Hyman-Matthews-Nylander seems like Babcock's kind of role variation. So I'll say that as it stands, the Forward Soon To Be Known As (#) is going to settle in on our nominal third line for at least a little bit.

5. If you had to make a perfect 4th line out of any current known 4th liners in the league, who would it be and why?

*You can get into the deep philosophy about how TOI rather than lines are the best way to describe players.
*You can also discuss "role playing" vs. skill.--Achariya

Ooo, this is a tough one.

Let's try the ice-time idea. We'll look at every forward in the NHL who played at least 30 games, but wasn't in the top nine forwards on his team in ice-time per game. I have done this. I have decided to make a fourth line of Conor Sheary, Tomas Tatar, and Matt Moulson. Thank you for your time.

What, those guys don't seem like fourth-liners to you?

Fine. More philosophically:

I don't totally subscribe to the idea that your fourth line isn't for scoring, but the fact is, they're not likely to include your best offensive players. You get the odd situation like that of Matt Moulson, who played very little at EV yet got regular powerplay time, but the vast majority of guys in this range are not playing on the PP. Penalty-killing specialists are somewhat more common, but even those guys tend to be second unit; David Legwand is a rare exception. (Buffalo is weird, man.)

With the special teams angle discounted, here are a couple of ideas for your fourth line. You can either have a stout EV group that can chip in a little offence, or you can use it as a development opportunity for your young players. However, you don't want to put the players you're trying to develop into a position where they're playing with low-end offensive players, and you'd like your team not to get crushed too badly while your fourth line is on. This seems to be the attitude of the league in general; of the 124 guys who met my cutoff, very few were young players, and those who were largely seem to have been playing higher at EV than the fourth line (for example, Andreas Athanasiou in Detroit, or Jake Virtanen in Vancouver.)

So what's the best development situation for your hot young things going to be? We'd have been unhappy last year if Nylander's NHL audition had been him getting nine minutes a night winging Byron Froese. You can argue that the fourth line is a better place to develop your defensive players--Frederik Gauthier, who will show up in this mailbag later, comes to mind--but defensive players who don't score a lot are extremely replaceable in free agency. This means the usual special benefit of young players--that they're wildly underpaid--is limited. As a rule, I really think the best reasonable goal for your fourth line is one that keeps its head above water in possession, eats bad zone starts, scores the odd goal, and costs very little money.

I know the popular wisdom is now that you can simply roll four above average lines and party down. But the fact remains that in a salary-capped league, it's extremely difficult to maintain an above-average fourth line for an extended period; by definition, cheap above-average forwards should be winning more ice-time and earning raises on their next deals. Sure, I'd love a fourth line of guys who put up a CF% of 55 and score 40 points a year. But I really don't think that's realistic for most teams, most of the time.

So: the fourth line of guys I would comfortably class as fourth liners is Ryan Garbutt-Nick Shore-Brad Boyes. All of these guys are good-to-great possession players (Nick Shore was the #1 forward in the NHL last year in score-adjusted Corsi, min 500 minutes, though of course it helps that he plays for the Kings.) Boyes, and to a lesser extent Garbutt, both are capable of a little offensive production. And you could put them together for a combined cost of less than $2.5M (Garbutt is making $900K, Shore is making $600K, and Boyes doesn't currently have a contract.)

So there's my best actual fourth line. I was really pulling for Tomas Tatar, though.

6. Say you had a hot tub time machine and you find yourself in 2004. After you got your fill of WMD pontificating, R Kelly’s dulcet tones and 50 Cent’s sensible advice to ‘go shorty, it’s your birthday’, who would you bring back from the last (good) Leafs playoff team to play for this roster?--pumpedtires

First, I would like to take a moment to note the phenomenal set-up for this question. With that done:

Mats is the easy choice, obviously, and I think Joe Nieuwendyk definitely has to make it; even at his late age, he was still very productive. After that, things get a little trickier at forward. Mogilny in 2004 was excellent when he played, but he was injured most the year and only played another half-season before retirement, so I have to reluctantly leave him off. But I'd bring along two other right wingers and a left; they're all of the productive-and-gritty variety.

JVR-Sundin-Marner

Nieuwendyk-Matthews-Nylander

Roberts-Kadri-Tucker

Komarov-Bozak-Nolan

There's probably a better option at 4LW than Komarov, but I'm keeping him because shut up, that's why. Anyway, this lineup is big, belligerent (that third line is going to be the most hated in hockey), and very productive.

The defence has the same problem that the modern Leafs do: its best talents all shoot left. At the same time, you don't want to obsess so much over handedness you talk yourself into keeping Frank Corrado over Brian Leetch. I'm saying to hell with handedness and importing three lefties.

Rielly-Leetch

Kaberle-McCabe

Gardiner-Zaitsev

I'm gambling a bit by keeping Zaitsev as my lone remaining righty, but I prefer that to importing the best RHD on the 2004 Leafs (Ken Klee) or yet another lefty (Bryan Marchment or...yep...Aki Berg.) Kaberle-McCabe are reunited as of old, and if Rielly can't fix his defensive issues with a Hall of Fame defender riding shotgun, there's no saving him.

The result is a very offence-minded defence group, but points from your defence are still points your team is getting, and I think both Kaberle and Gardiner have never gotten enough credit for their defensive games.

The goalie names are easy, the only question is who starts (Andersen in 2015-16 and Belfour in 2003-04 both put up .918.) Belfour was more significantly outperforming the league average in the year he played (.911, rather than .915), and had a much longer track record as a starter, so I'd give him the slight edge, but it's tight.

Belfour

Andersen

So that ought to do it. We're gonna get Mats a Cup, everybody.

7. F/M/K: Brandon Prust, Brad Marchand, or Radko Gudas.--Achariya

And if thou gaze long into the abyss, the abyss gazes also into you.--Frederik Nietzsche

I'm on record as saying I would take Brad Marchand on the Leafs if I could (though maybe not on that contract he just signed.) He's a rat. He's also a damn good player. If my sacrifice will significantly improve the Leafs, I will marry Brad Marchand. I am a martyr to our cause.

Five years ago the remaining decision would have been more difficult. But Radko Gudas is still in the league and still, as of this week, boarding people with reckless disregard. Brandon Prust is basically finished in the NHL, assuming his student-teacher job with the Leafs doesn't go anywhere. Gudas is the clear and present danger. Kill Gudas.

As a tragic consequence, I'm now having sex with Brandon Prust. At least he's the best-looking one.

8. Does a dog have the Buddha-nature?--Kad Chilger

lol the Buddha-nature is the totality of existence the dog partakes as all beings do ask me a hard one lmao

9. Would you rather put a toothpick under your big toenail and kick a wall with that foot as hard as you can, or bite down on a metal file and have someone yank it out of your mouth?--brigstew

You worry me, brigs, you really do.

At any rate, I think the damage to your teeth would be harder to recover, although I could see the toe thing being more painful. I do have the majestic super thighs of a soccer god, so I'd probably kick the wall pretty hard, but I'll say that.