Ok, so everyone around these parts is in a bit of a mellow state recently. The Leafs are winning games; they're competitive; they aren't letting in as many goals; Phil Kessel is scoring on what looks like a top line; Jonas Gustavsson has won 6 games in a row; the PK is respectable.
Generally things seem positive and the Leafs are likely to catch the competition ahead of them and we can all happily forget about the Phil Kessel trade, and losing the rights to call upon Taylor Hall, or Tyler Seguin, or Cam Fowler, or whoever ends up going where the Leafs WOULD have selected at this year's upcoming NHL entry draft.
Hmm... ok maybe not that last part. You see, even if the Leafs maintain their current point production pace - 0.708 points percentage since the trade deadline - they still aren't likely to catch any of the teams ahead of them. If they maintain that pace for the last 8 games of the year, they'll end up with 11 more points, giving them 77 for the year.
Here are the post deadline point percentages (tongue twister much?) of the teams ahead of the Leafs in the standings that they have much of a hope of catching, along with their number of games remaining, and the points they can expect to gain in the standings:
| Team | Pts | Post Deadline Rec. | Pts % | GR | Pot. Pts | Final Pts |
| PHI | 80 | 4-7-3 | 0.393 | 7 | 5 | 85 |
| ATL | 76 | 5-6-2 | 0.462 | 8 | 7 | 83 |
| NYR | 75 | 4-5-2 | 0.455 | 8 | 7 | 82 |
| CBJ | 72 | 5-4-1 | 0.550 | 8 | 9 | 81 |
| TBL | 72 | 4-7-1 | 0.375 | 8 | 6 | 78 |
| FLA | 71 | 6-4-1 | 0.590 | 8 | 11 | 82 |
| CAR | 71 | 6-4-2 | 0.583 | 8 | 9 | 80 |
| NYI | 70 | 4-5-2 | 0.455 | 8 | 7 | 77 |
| TOR | 66 | 8-3-1 | 0.708 | 8 | 11 | 77 |
As you can see, the Leafs are unlikely to catch any of the teams ahead of them in the standings easily. The Islanders, Lightning, and Flyers are all playing relatively poorly, and should they fall completely off of the map, the Leafs may have a hope of passing them. Unfortunately, the Flyers have a 14 point lead, the Lightning still score a lot of goals and play against the South East division, and the Islanders seem to excel at screwing the Leafs when it comes to the draft.
While the timing has little to do with all of this development, it should be pointed out that based on their current play, the Leafs have no business expecting to continue to have a .708 points percentage for the remainder of the season. The team has scored 29 goals since the trade deadline, and has allowed an identical total. 6 of their 8 wins have come in OT or the Shootout. They are basically making up for their 1-10 OT/SO record from earlier this season, by regressing towards the .500 play one expects from most teams in shoot outs, and scoring the occasional victory in OT.
Another fault of this method of success is the Leafs keep sacrificing points in the standings to teams they are chasing. If you want to keep close contact with a bunch of teams ahead of you, giving them an opportunity to keep their distance from you isn't going to help in the long run.
As of right now, I would anticipate Florida may dip a bit if David Booth's concussion issues resurface. Philadelphia is suffering from a lack of top end goaltending, and the lost scoring touch of Jeff Carter. It is possible both teams will lose more than they win the rest of the way. Either way things go though, the Leafs likely have more ground to make up than is physically possible.
