Leafs Line Production

Ok so we all know the Leafs have suffered this season offensively. That being said, most Leaf fans have been pleasantly surprised (or at least impressed) by the offensive output of the Clarke MacArthur, Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolai Kulemin (MGK) line. All three players are on pace for career years and they have been the Leafs most consistent offensive threats during this not so stellar campaign.

But what does that mean? How do they stack up against other teams around the NHL?  Where would they fit in as a unit?  Well, looking at the numbers, it looks like they would easily be one of the top 2nd lines in the NHL.  In fact if they got more chances on the Power Play, they might in fact develop into a half decent 1st line - or a 1A line if you will.  Let's take a look at the numbers in a bit more depth shall we?

At even strength, the MGK line is actually the 9th most productive in the NHL with 31 points. The best in the league is the Richards, Neal, Eriksson unit in Dallas who have 50 points, with Anaheim's young guns of Getzlaf, Perry, and Ryan falling second with 41 points. Philadelphia's '2nd line' of Ville Leino, Daniel Briere, and Scott Hartnell have continued their dominance that they showed in the NHL playoffs, producing 40 points so far this year at Even Strength.

Of note is the fact that some teams have multiple lines in this top section.  Edmonton has three line combos that have produced 19 or more even strength points each, while Detroit has a 29 point AND a 32 point line. San Jose has a 20 point and a 19 point line, Montreal has a 19 and 17 point line.  This depth is something lacking in the Leafs offense.  At even strength, the Leafs 2nd most productive unit is the Kessel, Bozak, Versteeg unit, which has produced all of 6 points.  That would rank it as the 209th line in the NHL at even strength... yes that's pretty atrocious.

What about on the Power Play? Who is productive as a forward trio there?  Well for the Leafs, the top trio is the Kessel, Bozak, Kadri (along with Versteeg) line that has 8 points.  That's tied for the 24th highest point production amongst NHL power play forward units.  The best in the NHL rival some of the top producing even strength trios.

The balance of the two is quite interesting, and here are the top combinations of both the PP and ES.

1. Washington - Ovechkin, Backstrom, Semin - 65 pts.

2. San Jose - Heatley, Thornton, Marleau - 63 pts.

3. Dallas - Eriksson, Richards, Neal - 56 pts.

4. Anaheim - Perry, Getzlaf, Ryan - 46 pts.

5. Toronto - MacArthur, Grabovski, Kulemin - 42 pts.

That's right people, the MacArthur, Grabovski, Kulemin combination is the 5th most productive set trio in the NHL.  Maybe THAT is part of the reason Ron Wilson doesn't want to break the trio up - if he screws with that sort of chemistry, then what's left on the Leafs offensively?

The main problem with the Leafs is a complete lack of production from the rest of the forwards. Kessel's production has nose-dived, Kris Versteeg isn't scoring unless he's on the point on the power play, and Tyler Bozak and Nazem Kadri are struggling with their first few forays into the NHL still. This is a very young team, but there are PARTS of it that are working quite well. The MGK line is one of them.

I'm not sure how long the combination lasts, but for now, they're one of the best in the league.  Don't forget that the next time you watch them skate around the ice.  They may be getting 2nd line matchups, but that won't last if they keep producing.  I'm still wondering if more 1st line PP time would up their production further, but we'll have to see what happens on that front.

Another thing I think people may not realize looking at these stats is that very few teams use fixed lines in the NHL.  When fans complain about Ron Wilson blending and mixing his lines, he actually does it far LESS than many coaches around the league.  The combination of lines Sidney Crosby plays on have over 50 points at even strength, but no set line he plays on has over 35 points when you combine both their PP and ES numbers.  Set lines are nice if you can get them going, but that appears to be a rarity.  The San Jose and Washington top lines seem quite set, and they produce at an extremely high rate.  That being said, many other effective teams that produce well offensively, don't get a huge amount of offense from one single line.  Philadelphia has a line that's great at ES in the Briere, Hartnell, and Leino line, but that trio almost never plays together on the PP.  For that reason, I'm not sure keeping a fixed group together on the PP makes a lot of sense.

Perhaps the Leafs need to put Kessel out with Grabovski, Kulemin, Kaberle and Versteeg on the PP, and then let Bozak, MacArthur, and Kadri play with Phaneuf and Beauchemin on the 2nd PP unit.  That to me would probably increase the PP production from the first group.  It's just an idea, and I'm not sure it'll make a huge difference, but I'd like to see them try and mix it up a bit.