Last summer was a nice calm uneventful period for the Maple Leafs where no one talked about contracts or cap hits. But if we cast our minds back a little, we might recall the summer where we all learned about offseason LTIR and how the salary cap is calculated from July 1 to the end of training camp. It’s time to look at that business again to see how much cap space the Leafs actually have right now to sign players.
Most people are familiar with the offseason salary cap cushion of 10% that allows teams to make deals and sign players without having to fit under the cap ceiling at all times. But there’s a couple of unanswered questions about this calculation: 10% of what, and just how do you add up the cap hit of a team when there is no roster?
Salary Cap Upper Limit
Sometime in June the NHL will announce the salary cap ceiling and floor for the coming season — the upper and lower limits. The NHL season runs from July 1 to June 30, so right now, this is still the 2018-2019 season and there’s no salary cap in effect as it was lifted as soon as the playoffs start.
Cap Friendly reports that the earliest the NHL has announced the new numbers is June 18 and the latest is June 29.
Once we know that new cap ceiling, then we can calculate the offseason salary cap cushion, which is 10% of the upper limit.
Calculating the Salary Cap of a team in the offseason
Not every NHL salary counts against the salary cap during the season. The 23-man NHL roster plus any amounts too big to bury in the AHL are what makes up the bulk of a team’s cap hit, but as soon as the trade deadline rolls around, there is no 23-man limit, and once July 1 arrives, there is no one in the AHL. All players are on the NHL roster, and stay there until they are assigned in training camp. But not all of their cap hits count. That would never work, and no team would ever be under the upper limit.
The rules for adding up what does count are fairly straightforward, if a little fiddly. First, only players under contract for the 2019-2020 season are considered, with the addition of all RFAs who have been issued qualifying offers. Then the cap hits are added up this way:
- All NHL contracts that are one-way
- All NHL two-way contracts, prorated by the number of days the player was in the NHL the prior year
- All unsigned RFAs at their qualifying offer amount, prorated by the number of days the players was in the NHL the prior year for two-way qualifying offers
- All other amounts such as retained salary or bonus rollovers
The current situation for the Maple Leafs looks like this:
Preliminary 2019 Maple Leafs Offseason Cap Hit
| Name | Cap Hit (or Qualifying Offer) | Days in NHL If 2-way | Prorated Cap Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| One-Way Contracts | |||
| Auston Matthews | 11,634,000 | 11,634,000 | |
| John Tavares | 11,000,000 | 11,000,000 | |
| William Nylander | 6,962,366 | 6,962,366 | |
| Patrick Marleau | 6,250,000 | 6,250,000 | |
| Nazem Kadri | 4,500,000 | 4,500,000 | |
| Zach Hyman | 2,250,000 | 2,250,000 | |
| Connor Brown | 2,100,000 | 2,100,000 | |
| Trevor Moore | 775,000 | 775,000 | |
| Nic Petan | 775,000 | 775,000 | |
| Morgan Rielly | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | |
| Nikita Zaitsev | 4,500,000 | 4,500,000 | |
| Jake Muzzin | 4,000,000 | 4,000,000 | |
| Justin Holl | 675,000 | 675,000 | |
| Calle Rosen | 750,000 | 750,000 | |
| Frederik Andersen | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | |
| Garrett Sparks | 750,000 | 750,000 | |
| Nathan Horton | 5,300,000 | 5,300,000 | |
| Two-Way Contracts | |||
| Frederik Gauthier | 675,000 | 180 | 675,000 |
| Travis Dermott | 863,333 | 180 | 863,333 |
| Ilya Mikheyev | 925,000 | 0 | 0 |
| Egor Korshkov | 925,000 | 0 | 0 |
| Pierre Engvall | 925,000 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Bracco | 842,500 | 0 | 0 |
| Semyon Der Arguchintsev | 783,333 | 0 | 0 |
| Mason Marchment | 767,500 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Brooks | 759,167 | 0 | 0 |
| Dmytro Timashov | 694,444 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasmus Sandin | 894,167 | 0 | 0 |
| Timothy Liljegren | 863,333 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Duszak | 800,000 | 0 | 0 |
| Mac Hollowell | 799,766 | 0 | 0 |
| Teemu Kivihalme | 792,500 | 0 | 0 |
| Jesper Lindgren | 775,833 | 0 | 0 |
| Andreas Borgman | 700,000 | 0 | 0 |
| Ian Scott | 805,833 | 0 | 0 |
| Joseph Woll | 800,000 | 0 | 0 |
| Kasimir Kaskisuo | 675,000 | 6 | 22,500 |
| Qualifying Offers | |||
| Andreas Johnsson | 862,875 | 180 | 862,875 |
| Kasperi Kapanen | 874,125 | 180 | 874,125 |
| Mitch Marner | 874,125 | 874,125 | |
| Michael Carcone | 735,000 | 0 | 0 |
| Gabriel Gagne | 735,000 | 0 | 0 |
| Nicholas Baptiste | 826,875 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Subban | 715,000 | 0 | 0 |
| Eamon McAdam | 874,125 | 1 | 4,856 |
| Retained | 1,200,000 | ||
| Total: | 77,598,180 | ||
| Salary Cap | 83,000,000 | ||
| 10% overage | 8,300,000 | ||
| Total: | 91,300,000 | ||
| Cap Space | 13,701,820 |
Notes:
- I have taken the days in the NHL for Eamon McAdam and Kasimir Kaskisuo from the dates they were called up and down. If it’s off by a little, the effect is minimal.
- There is no bonus rollover this year.
- The cap ceiling will go up, but by how much isn’t known yet.
- No unsigned UFAs count, but they do as soon as they are signed if the deal is one-way.
- Teams have to include the amount in any offer sheet they have negotiated with a player, so the offering team has to have the room in this calculation at the time they negotiate the offer.
The Mitch Marner contract will eat up most of this cap space, and any UFA signed on July 1 has to fit in the remainder. However, as we learned a few years ago, the Leafs can put Nathan Horton on LTIR in the offseason. The above calculation includes his contract.
Just like in the regular season, it’s advantageous to be as close to the upper limit as a team can get before they place a player on LTIR. So for the Maple Leafs, they will coast along under the upper limit and the extra 10% until they get very close, and then they will make that LTIR move to provide a pool of $5.3 million to use for new contracts. LTIR pools are depleted by the AAV and the performance bonuses in a contract, so the Leafs will not sign a 35+ contract or ELC that includes bonuses if they can help it this offseason.
The other thing the Leafs have done very well is not having any extra one-way contracts on the books at the moment. They did have several AHL players on one-way deals during the season, but those have expired, and we should not expect to see any new ones signed until closer to the start of the season. If the Leafs were to sign a player who spent last season in the AHL to a two-way deal, this calculation is unaffected.
When the regular season starts, the calculations are all redone without the 10% cushion and using the actual 23-man roster, so that ultimate calculation has to be kept in mind as deals are made this season. The current calculation only includes 19 players, excepting the extra backup goalies, so the in-season cap calculation is going to be even tighter, and not just because there’s three RFAs to upgrade from qualifying offer amounts to contract amounts.
This calculation will be updated and re-posted as changes are made.