Winnipeg Jets @ Toronto Maple Leafs
02:00 PM at Scotiabank Arena
Watch on: TSN4, TSN3

The Leafs last game was at home on December 21 against the New York Islanders, which Toronto lost by a score of 6-3 in regulation. The Leafs have a record of 21-11-2 for a 0.647 Points %.

The Winnipeg Jets last played at home on December 21 against the Minnesota Wild. The Jets won by a score of 5-0 in regulation, and their current league record is 24-10-1 for a 0.700 Points %.

Them

When last we saw the Jets, the Leafs helpfully ended their season-opening winning streak. Since then, reality has hit the team, and they haven't dominated every game, but they do have the most wins in the league, just one ahead of Washington and three ahead of Toronto.

The Jets are still doing it with goalies. And some shooting luck, although, that's not quite as extreme as it was back 10 or so games into the season. Their Corsi % is a bit better than Toronto's, but their poor overall shot quality, and Toronto's ability to limit the quality of shots against puts their Expected Goals at 16th and 17th in the league and right on 50%.

Islanders to the left of us, Penguins to the right, and we're stuck in the middle with them. (Not even a little sorry.)

The Jets have the best all-situations Save % in the NHL, and the Leafs are third. The difference is their goalie isn't getting a procedure right now. By Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 minutes (Moneypuck), Connor Hellebuyck is third for goalies with at least 10 games played. He has 27 because he still plays like it's 2005 and starters play 60 games.

The Jets power play is extremely mediocre by Expected Goals, but they have the best goal rate in the NHL. A great deal of their early and unsustainable shooting bender was coming on the power play. Which isn't to say they aren't talented and don't "deserve" some of their goals, but the underlying system is very low event. I'm sure Jets fans have many folk tales about how that's a clever scheme to game the system and only take good shots.

Kyle Connor and Connor Hellebuyck. That's the Jets in brief.

Lines

Last Game (2024-12-21) via Daily Faceoff

Kyle Connor - Mark Scheifele - Gabriel Vilardi
Cole Perfetti - Vladislav Namestnikov - Nikolaj Ehlers
Nino Niederreiter - Adam Lowry - Mason Appleton
Morgan Barron - David Gustafsson - Alex Iafallo

Josh Morrissey - Dylan DeMelo
Haydn Fleury - Neal Pionk
Ville Heinola - Colin Miller

Connor Hellebuyck
Eric Comrie

Us

A note on the goalies. Dennis Hildeby can be returned to the AHL today, and then recalled again on the 28th, so after the next game. He could be recalled for that next game if it's on emergency basis, but if Matt Murray is right there, well, the Leafs seem to game the emergency system pretty well. But I expect that switch to be made after the game.

Auston Matthews? Popular opinion says he shouldn't play, but hockey players want to play if they can and every game has a risk of injury. He's out today, and the next game is a maybe.

Lines last game were actually every possible combination, so who knows for today. We'll find out in warmup.

Lines

Last Game (2024-12-21) via Daily Faceoff

Matthew Knies - David Kämpf - William Nylander
Bobby McMann - John Tavares - Mitch Marner
Max Pacioretty - Max Domi - Nicholas Robertson
Steven Lorentz - Connor Dewar - Ryan Reaves

Morgan Rielly - Conor Timmins
Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Chris Tanev
Simon Benoit - Jake McCabe

Joe Woll - starter
Dennis Hildeby

The Game

Leafs management need to take a long and hard look at the Jets and ask themselves if they've confused Anthony Stolarz + Joe Woll for a goalie like Hellebuyck. You can't mediocre your way through most of the game unless you have the real thing who can start 50+ games in net. Now is as good a time as any to pick up the offensive pace.

Today is also a Next-Gen game, which likely means those black jerseys. They looked great on Prime, with the crisp unblurry video. They are a little less distinctive, and little more an amorphous dark blob on TSN.

Go Leafs Go!

This will serve as the GDT for this afternoon as well.

Game Coverage