Buffalo Sabres @ Toronto Maple Leafs
05:00 PM at Scotiabank Arena
Watch on: TSN4, MSG-B

The Leafs last game was yesterday at the Detroit Red Wings, which Toronto lost by a score of 4-2 in regulation. The Leafs have a record of 18-10-2 for a 0.633 Points %.

The Buffalo Sabres last played yesterday visiting the Washington Capitals. The Sabres lost by a score of 4-2 in regulation, and their current league record is 11-15-4 for a 0.433 Points %.

Them

They are equally disgruntled in the short term after a loss, but in the long term, the Sabres are in trouble.

Something like five years ago, I wrote a history of the Sabres decline from their former status as a good team and the subsequent decades of ineptitude. They have been, arguably the team that produced the worst season of hockey ever. I think that one Colorado season might have been worse, but the Sabres were epically bad.

Those years of very bad bad team – the Sabres, the Coyotes, the Avs for a time – they created a meme among fans, as the Corsi revolution swept fandom, that good teams were outstanding by the percentages and bad teams were abominable. This hasn't been the case since the Leafs dove in the tank, grabbed Auston Matthews and jumped right back out. Okay, the Habs are trying to bring the mid 2000s back, but no one else.

What is up with the Sabres? They are mediocre at the percentages – better than the Leafs at Corsi and equally bad (or good if you're looking up from the bottom) in Expected Goals. They lose on the quality side of the equation both offensively and defensively. They shoot the puck a lot more than the Leafs, but end up almost equally as bad at Expected Goals For.

Their power play is terrible, and they score right on expected, so terribly. Their all-situations Save % is bottom third of the league.

I'd say what's wrong with this team is roster construction.

UPL played last night, so I'm guessing we're seeing James Reimer who has been about league average this season.

Lines

Last game via Daily Faceoff

JJ Peterka - Tage Thompson - Alex Tuch
Zach Benson - Jiri Kulich - Dylan Cozens
Jordan Greenway - Ryan McLeod - Jason Zucker
Beck Malenstyn - Peyton Krebs - Nicolas Aubé-Kubel

Owen Power - Mattias Samuelsson
Ryan Johnson - Bowen Byram
Dennis Gilbert - Connor Clifton

James Reimer Devon Levi with the start.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Us

I don't enjoy writing about the Expletive Deleted Buffalo Sabres and seeing the Leafs as bad or worse at the basic five-on-five game. I really don't care one bit about depth scoring of "but they're good defensively" either. SN put a graphic up on TV last night showing that the Leafs were 19th in Shots Against, and called them good defensively. Getting out of your own zone is a fundamental of the game. So is keeping the puck in the offensive zone. Yes Tanev and McCabe are fantastic, but they aren't winning the game for you.

The Leafs are playing boring, medium bad to okay hockey most of the time. Yes, indeed, Mike Johnson, if they scored on the power play like they almost certainly will in time the goals for will go up to something more reasonable, unlike the unreasonable 22nd in the NHL they are right now. But they won't be a dangerous offensive team.

If the only reason other teams consider you hard to play against is that guys like Fraser Minten hit a lot and hit hard, well are you hard to beat? How about now with Anthony Stolarz out of action?

This has been my rant for the day.

On the bright side, the Leafs have some opportunities to bring in a couple of players who didn't play last night. Unfortunately they are Nick Robertson, Ryan Reaves and Phil Myers.

It would be an insult to replace anyone on the fourth line, they were excellent at their job last night. The player who needs to sit likely won't.

Lines

David Alter via Daily Faceoff from last night

Matthew Knies - Auston Matthews - Mitch Marner
Max Pacioretty - John Tavares - William Nylander
Bobby McMann - Fraser Minten - Max Domi
Pontus Holmberg - Connor Dewar - Steven Lorentz

Jake McCabe - Chris Tanev
Morgan Rielly - Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Simon Benoit - Conor Timmins

Dennis Hildeby
Joe Woll

The Game

Goalie them, Dennis.

Game Coverage