Charting the Leafs: fourth quarter results are in

There are not a lot of surprises in the basic data:

The overall shot differential (CF%) is a touch lower but the share of high-danger chances (HSCF%) has rebounded a little from the third quarter dip. The only shock might be that with all that youth and enthusiasm and a lot fun games, the Leafs actually got worse at scoring goals. This is all five on five data, remember.

Digging into the shot numbers, and the picture is clearer.

The shots for (CF60) barely changed while the (CA60) rose up to about where it was in the second quarter, the price you pay for that youth.

However, most of those increased shots against seem to be medium and low danger, and the loss in shots for is also low danger. So the defensive system seems solid, even if the overall possession fluctuated with the revolving door on the bench.

The shot rate for and against went up from the very low event third quarter.

And the shooting percentage and save percentage changes were not large, but I was surprised to see the shooting percentage in this last quarter actually go down again. That still terrible save percentage disguises an excellent run by Bernier. His adjusted 5-on-5 save percentage over that period was .938.

Predictions

I was really wrong at the half, and really right at the quarter pole. How will I do for next year?

I think an uptick in goals for is inevitable, but so is some hard times on the shots against as new guys work into the system, and some old hands like William Nylander come back and have to do it for 82 games.

If Nazem Kadri has wingers worthy of him, we might see a lot more goals.

Mike Babcock identifies scoring as a #leafs need: "We have to make sure we have (225) goals on paper prior to the start of the season."

— Chris Johnston (@reporterchris) 10 April 2016

But will the Leafs make the playoffs next year? Ask their goalies. Whoever they end up being.

Glossary

All data is from War on Ice, and is score adjusted 5-on-5.