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Last year there were 36 players on the eligibility list, with six who had at least 10 NHL regular season games. All but one of those six is gone, and this year's list is younger, less experienced and lacking in high-end drafted prospects.
The two highest drafted players are Easton Cowan at 28th overall and Ben Danford at 31st – the only two taken in the first round.
Given the recent draft, I was expecting the list to be tilted a little to defence, but it isn't really. There are 11 defenders, or 30.6%, and if you consider a 23-man roster with seven defenders, that's 30.4%. But then consider that the only two players eligible for voting who are in the NHL are forwards while there aren't any defenders likely to make the leap any time soon. It's not at all a prospect pool set up to solve a current defensive problem. Which is good because that's a bad way to draft players.
There are slightly more goalies than a typical roster percentage: 11.1% instead of 8.7%. There's two choices with goalies and the draft: either pick a lot of them or none. Either assume you will be finding your goalies as free agents or in trade, or you will be trying to develop at least half a tandem by repeatedly spinning a roulette wheel. The days of picking an elite starter in the draft who will play most of the games and win you the Cup are long past.
There are ten players on this list drafted by the Leafs with picks better than spot 100 and seven of them are forwards. Those 10 players are where we'll find the prospect most likely to make an impact in the future. There might be someone special taken at later draft positions, or one of the three undrafted players, but the highest drafted prospects are where you look first for future value. Ben Danford really is it as far as defenders go unless you believe more than I do in Topi Niemelä.
2024 T25U25 Eligibility List
Player | 2023 Rank | Birth Date | Age in Days | Nationality | POS | NHL GP | Draft Year | Draft # |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alex Steeves | 14 | December 10, 1999 | 8,970 | USA | C | 7 | Undrafted | |
Semyon Kizimov | NR | January 19, 2000 | 8,930 | Russia | C/W | 2018 | 211 | |
Semyon Der-Arguchintsev | 19 | September 15, 2000 | 8,690 | Russia | C/W | 1 | 2018 | 76 |
Cade Webber | NA | January 5, 2001 | 8,578 | USA | LD | 2019 | 99 | |
Mikko Kokkonen | 25 | January 18, 2001 | 8,565 | Finland | LD | 2019 | 84 | |
Michael Koster | NR | April 13, 2001 | 8,480 | USA | LD | 2019 | 146 | |
John Fusco | NR | June 12, 2001 | 8,420 | USA | LD | 2020 | 189 | |
Dennis Hildeby | 23 | August 19, 2001 | 8,352 | Sweden | G | 0 | 2022 | 122 |
Nicholas Robertson | 3 | September 11, 2001 | 8,329 | USA | W | 87 | 2019 | 53 |
Veeti Miettinen | NR | September 20, 2001 | 8,320 | Finland | RW | 2020 | 168 | |
Artur Akhtyamov | 24 | October 31, 2001 | 8,279 | Russia | G | 2020 | 106 | |
Roni Hirvonen | 9 | January 10, 2002 | 8,208 | Finland | C | 2020 | 59 | |
Ryan Tverberg | 17 | January 30, 2002 | 8,188 | Canada | C | 2020 | 213 | |
Jacob Quillan | NA | February 2, 2002 | 8,185 | Canada | C | Undrafted | ||
William Villeneuve | 16 | March 20, 2002 | 8,139 | Canada | RD | 2020 | 122 | |
Topi Niemelä | 6 | May 25, 2002 | 8,073 | Finland | RD | 2020 | 64 | |
Wyatt Schingoethe | NR | August 3, 2002 | 8,003 | USA | C | 2020 | 195 | |
Vyacheslav Peksa | NR | August 27, 2002 | 7,979 | Russia | G | 2021 | 185 | |
Joe Miller | NR | September 15, 2002 | 7,960 | USA | F | 2020 | 180 | |
Matthew Knies | 1 | October 17, 2002 | 7,928 | USA | LW | 83 | 2021 | 57 |
Braeden Kressler | NR | January 5, 2003 | 7,848 | Canada | C | Undrafted | ||
Nikita Grebenkin | 12 | February 5, 2003 | 7,817 | Russia | RW | 2022 | 135 | |
Ty Voit | 15 | June 10, 2003 | 7,692 | USA | LW | 2021 | 153 | |
Hudson Malinoski | 20 | May 19, 2004 | 7,348 | Canada | C | 2023 | 153 | |
Nicholas Moldenhauer | 13 | May 25, 2004 | 7,342 | Canada | RW/C | 2022 | 95 | |
Fraser Minten | 8 | July 5, 2004 | 7,301 | Canada | C | 4 | 2022 | 38 |
Timofei Obvintsev | NA | January 6, 2005 | 7,116 | Russia | G | 2024 | 157 | |
Noah Chadwick | 18 | May 10, 2005 | 6,992 | Canada | LD | 2023 | 185 | |
Easton Cowan | 10 | May 20, 2005 | 6,982 | Canada | C | 2023 | 28 | |
Sam McCue | NA | October 3, 2005 | 6,846 | Canada | LW | 2024 | 216 | |
Miroslav Holinka | NA | November 10, 2005 | 6,808 | Czechia | C/W | 2024 | 151 | |
Ben Danford | NA | February 6, 2006 | 6,720 | Canada | RD | 2024 | 31 | |
Victor Johansson | NA | April 25, 2006 | 6,642 | Sweden | LD | 2024 | 120 | |
Nathan Mayes | NA | June 10, 2006 | 6,596 | Canada | LD | 2024 | 225 | |
Matthew Lahey | NA | July 17, 2006 | 6,559 | Canada | LD | 2024 | 200 | |
Alexander Plesovskikh | NA | August 1, 2006 | 6,544 | Russia | LW | 2024 | 152 |
There are 13 Canadians, nine Americans, seven Russians, four Finns, two Swedes and one Czech which makes this group not terribly different to the makeup of the NHL. It does make me wonder if the Leafs' scouts think Sweden is fished out for prospects, since there are only two Swedes and they are unusual choices.
There are 11, 10, 10 and five players born in the first, second, third and fourth quarters of the year respectively. The 10 taken in the third quarter would have been the youngest in the draft in their first year. Three were just selected this summer with 2006 birthdates, indicating a lean towards underdeveloped prospects.
Of the five born in the fourth quarter – where research shows players tend to be drafted lower down the order than their true value – only three were actually drafted and two of those were this summer. While these players were older on the day of the draft – Sam McCue is 10 months older than Alexander Plesovskikh – they have spent their entire careers pre-draft as the youngest players on their team, and that correlates with being underrated at the draft. It also correlates with a high level of confusion in draft watchers who think those players are bigger and older and should be devalued for that reason.
The Leafs have, for many years, tilted their drafting away from those born in the first quarter of the year. The classic drafted player of days gone by is a tall, physical player born early in January, who first encountered opposing players much smaller than himself the first day he laced up skates, and he's never had to take on someone his own size until he hits the AHL.
Sort the table by NHL Games Played, though, and you'll see that this year's T25 is all about unrealized gains and gambling on the future.
The community vote will be ready soon, so get ready to pick your list of 25 based on hopes and dreams.
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