2024 T25U25: William Villeneuve is #21

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It's another Leafs defense prospect today as the 22-year-old William Villeneuve comes in at 21. Four years into his development with the Leafs, and two years into his time with the Marlies, let's see what Villeneuve has brought to the table.

William Villeneuve	Vitals
Age as of July 1	22.28
Position	RD
Height	6'2"
Weight (lbs)	183
Shoots	R
Draft Year	2020
Draft Number	122

The Player

Villeneuve from Sherbrooke developed in the QMJHL before making the step the Marlies in 2022. In his two years with the Marlies he has stayed put on the third pair, and in my searching through defense pairings, he was usually the second most reliable guy on each pairing.

John Gruden, coach of the Marlies, played Villeneuve with the following players last year: Cameron Gaunce, a now 34-year-old AHL veteran who's played parts of five seasons in the NHL. Marshall Rifai, a 26-year-old NCAA graduate who's become quite reliable on the left side, including two NHL games with the Leafs (we won't talk about how those went). And Matteo Pietroniro, an Italian-American who made his way up from the Growlers and was in the mix in the bottom four.

A lot of the guys Villeneuve played next to last year played with each other because Max Lajoie and Mikko Kokkonen were stapled to the first pair together, especially in the back half of the year. It was usually one of those two at the top of the ticket. Niemelä was often paired with Kokkonen (and sometimes Lajoie) in the first half of the year, but by the second half it was Lajoie-Kokkonen. We'll talk about Kokkonen later in this series.

We've discussed defense a lot in the Brad Treliving era, during a year where the Leafs defense quality took a massive nosedive. We mostly talked about how to evaluate the position and which players the Leafs could acquire were actually good, or not. The conclusions I've currently found myself with are whether the player has good shot stats (namely xG) and by how much the coach wants to put a player on the ice (zone starts, special teams, and where they are in the lineup).

How much the coach trusts you means a lot, especially for defenders. In my years covering the Marlies, the players that rise to the top of the lineup and stay there are the ones who get the chances at the next level. Off the top of my head, the defenders who got to the top of the lineup, were on the ice the most often and got their shot in the NHL were: Justin Holl, Martin Marincin, Calle Rosen, Travis Dermott, Rasmus Sandin, and Timothy Liljegren. One player I really liked for a while but never got played on the top pair was Kristians Rubins. He never made the NHL, but he's currently having fun playing great hockey for his national team and for clubs in Sweden and Czechia.

On the Marlies at the moment there are a couple players who are in a position to take a step. Villeneuve hasn't taken those steps or, frankly, gotten close to challenging for top pair time. Spoiler alert, you also know where I stand on Niemelä.

Villeneuve was at his best last year when he was playing with speed. Not with his skating, but his decision-making. When he was confident with both the puck on his stick and positioning on the ice, the game looked easier for him and he had some strong performances. That's the key in the AHL, and in turn the step to the NHL. Thinking and executing the next move faster than the opponent opens up chances for and closes down chances against reliably. The best way for Villeneuve to impress his coach more is having more of those nights.

The other factor in Villeneuve's game is how he engages physically. In the QMJHL, Villeneuve was able to hit hard and made games chippy when he wanted to. You would have seen the latter sometimes in the AHL, but the thing holding Villeneuve back from the physical game is his size. He's tall, but skinny, and doesn't have the muscle yet to push guys around and be taken seriously. That doesn't help him in front of the net, or whenever he wants to intimidate an opponent. I was surprised that his only fight last year was against some 5'8" guy.

Between decision making and getting bigger, one of those two things is quite possible and should be able to happen over a couple summers. The other is all down to what happens between the ears and gets translated on the ice. Villeneuve won't make the NHL simply from bulking up, but by thinking faster and with more confidence on a shift-by-shift basis and making himself reliable on the ice.

The Votes

Here's the voting spread for Villeneuve. Some high votes, some no-votes, but the panel mostly settled on the low 20s.

Voter	Vote
Cathy	21
Brian	20
Species	NA
Adam	NA
Hardev	22
dhammm	10
Cameron S	20
Hound Line	23
brysplace	NA
Catch-67	15
Sclodiggity	21
shinson93	NA
The Bag	21
Zone Entry	17
Weighted Average	21
Highest Vote	10
Lowest Vote	23

I ranked Villeneuve about where he ended up in the ranking. I don't want to say all hope is lost for a prospect like him, especially someone who is quite skinny for his size and has a problem defending physically against pro athletes, but the odds are long.

Another thing that is quite concerning is something Villeneuve has talked about himself; he's in the last year of his ELC and there's a risk if he doesn't show reasons to invest in him, he might not get qualified next year. In the interview, he hopes he can play some minutes with the Leafs. While I don't think he's at risk of getting non-qualified, he doesn't have unlimited time. His physical potential alone is why I think he'll earn a couple more years after this one.

The Opinions

dhammm: It appears I am substantially higher on Villeneuve than the rest of the voters. I feel I ought to explain my position.

I was bullish on him last year after he seemed to make the transition from major junior to a 4-5 defenseman in the AHL in his first pro season, but if you’re not improving, you’re declining. He followed up his first AHL season with what seems to be a carbon copy of his first year—same boxcars, same skills, same flaws—and by all accounts Villeneuve seemed to falter when challenged this season. He was a healthy scratch by the playoffs, and his position behind Niemela on the Marlies' RD depth chart is now in doubt, considering the tweener defensemen signed in UFA. It's possible that he had his shot and missed it. It's possible that his struggles in his sophomore AHL season are evidence that he will never amount to anything, with terrible finality.

But I still see a 22-year-old right-handed defenseman who could be a 4-5 NHL defenseman if things break right in his development. He has skills and height, and at 22 years old, he has a few more years to work the blunders out of his game and channel his attributes into an NHL player. I place him at the top of the AHLer/fringe pro tier of my ranking because, while a lot of others in this tier are currently better AHLers, Villeneuve is the one with the runway to maybe hit a higher ceiling than "player you can get on waivers and/or sign for league minimum."

Brigstew: He needed to take a step last season, and he didn’t. It’s not very fair to hope for that given how old he already was, but that’s what he needed to do in order to maintain a faint hope he could be an NHLer. He needs to do it again this year, but even then I think it’s too late with too much ground to make up.

Cathy: Mean take alert: I watched him in the Mem Cup and thought, oh, bless him, but no. And then I saw him in a preseason Leafs game, and he was the worst player the Leafs put on the ice, and I never wanted to see him play again. I don't blame him, because as much as defence is hard to pin down, his ability should have been obvious from camp. He didn't belong in those games and it did him no favours to put him in them.

shinson93: There really hasn’t been any progress here. He is just a guy; neither the offensive guy that can push play, nor the defensive guy that can shut things down. I don’t see any role for him and don’t think he’s going to get many minutes on a significantly improved Marlies D corp.

Your turn. Do you think Villeneuve will be able to put speed, strength, and smarts together and get that shot in the NHL he hopes to see?

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