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Topi Niemelä is a 2020 third round pick who came to North America last season and impressed many prospect watchers. He is ready to step up establish himself as the top Maple Leafs defensive prospect.
| Topi Niemelä | Vitals |
|---|---|
| Age as of July 1 | 22.1 |
| Position | RD |
| Height | 6' |
| Weight (lbs) | 179 |
| Shoots | R |
| Draft Year | 2020 |
| Draft Number | 64 |
The Player
Being an offensively gifted defender is something every team seems to be looking for, and what everyone wants. Points are the largest factor in Norris Trophy voting; which makes some sense. If you have offensive control of the puck, that's better than defending without it.
Niemelä is hitting the ground running in the AHL, putting up 39 points (68 games) in his North American debut last season. It is lower per game than his output in Kärpät in Liiga, but coming into the AHL and dropping 0.5 PPG as a rookie is good enough for me.
He's more than assists though, his overall ability has the Leafs special teams coaches waiting for him to make the jump. He can play the power play, penalty kill, and be trusted overall in most situations. He can read plays well ahead of time and be in position or set up his teammates as well as anyone.
Via Steve Ellis at TLN:
“In his own zone, he’s making good little plays that don’t always get him on the scoresheet, and he knows how to get the puck where it needs to be,” one scout said. “But he just has to be more dynamic, more varied in how he makes his plays.”
Steven Ellis
The Votes
From sixth to sixteenth, Niemelä got most of his votes in the lower half of the top ten. Cathy and Hardev are the only ones who had him in the teens, but enough people had up high to get him a spot near the end of the list.
| Voter | Vote |
|---|---|
| Cathy | 16 |
| Brian | 9 |
| Species | 8 |
| Adam | 6 |
| Hardev | 13 |
| dhammm | 6 |
| Cameron S | 7 |
| Hound Line | 7 |
| brysplace | 9 |
| Catch-67 | 9 |
| Sclodiggity | 6 |
| shinson93 | 8 |
| The Bag | 9 |
| Zone Entry | 10 |
| Weighted Average | 8.79 |
| Highest Vote | 6 |
| Lowest Vote | 16 |
In last years he's been 7th, 6th, and 6th. A couple great forward prospects got him bumped down after jumping up on slot from his debut Top 25, but he's consistently held up as one of the Leafs best defender prospects.
The Opinions
dhammm: Niemela showed meaningful progression in his second AHL season, and looks like he's got a real shot of hitting 4-5 defenseman status. That's not a given, mind you, but it’s not nothing either. The Leafs need guys like that, although considering the way people feel about Timothy Liljegren, that still might not be worth getting too hype about.
Sclodiggity: Niemelä has a strong track record in the Liiga and just finished an impressive season with the Marlies. His World Junior results provide helpful context since it can be hard to process different league difficulties and ages, but two strong World Junior performances clearly defines him as a quality prospect. At 22 years old, it's becoming harder to forecast further growth, enough to make him more than just a call up, but he still has a strong chance of being a quality depth defenseman (and on a cheap contract).
Brigstew: I did not see that Niemelä made significant progress last year. His offensive production was nice, but not elite. His defense was not at a good enough level before joining the Marlies, and he didn’t seem to get any better at it through the season either. That’s my biggest issue with him, he still needed to make improvements if we’re to expect an NHL stint in his future, but he didn’t seem to improve in any area. Not to any meaningful or easily noticeable degree. His offense was already good, and didn’t get better. He needed to add on more weight/muscle to help his defense, but he didn’t. He’ll have to catch up on those improvements this year.
shinson93: I’m not in the “Niemela had a good year” camp, nor am I in the “dump the bum” camp. I still think he has some unique skills that give him upside, but he’s running out of time to round out the rest of his game, especially on the physical/strength/body positioning side of things. I’m banking on the increased competition and contract year to push him to another level that we haven’t seen so far.
Cathy: I was turning low on Niemelä before this year, and I don't get how that last year in Kärpät didn't ring a very loud alarm bell. In his last outing at the WJC, he performed very poorly by the tracked information done at that event. That's in the context of Team Finland struggling defensively broadly. Teammates I thought he needed to be better than, in order to be who he was said to be were clearly actually better (Eemil Viro), and they aren't high-end prospects. Since then he has not improved in any meaningful way. He's not physically stronger, he's not adding any aspects to his game. More importantly, however, I've changed my view on how much size matters with defenders, how puck skills alone aren't enough, and also how to rate Liiga prospects. I moved him down relative to Hirvonen a lot, and down from Kokkonen, but in another sense, I'm lower on all of them, with the best only a faint hope of ever having an impactful pro career at a higher level than AHL.
Hound Line: His game is a tale of two zones: NHL skills (agility, hands, vision) in the offensive one and clear weaknesses (strength, positioning) in the defensive one. That's pretty much unchanged since last year or really, going back to his draft year; which is concerning. His place on my list is being propped up by the value of right handed defenders with puck skills.
The Bag: I struggled to find players to put above him, despite the fact that I have a hard time seeing him anywhere other than the AHL. I think I said this some months ago, but it is telling that, despite the Leafs’ lack of RD depth, there has been no real rumour, even, of 22 year-old Topi being considered for a cup of coffee with the Leafs.
So, is Niemelä ready for top minutes in the AHL, and can he make the progress needed to be seen as a future Maple Leafs defender?
As the answer goes with every member of the Top 25.....hopefully.
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