2024 T25U25: Matthew Knies is #1

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No one has been surprised that Matthew took over from Matthews as the top of the Top 25. He blasted into the NHL right out of college, and he's going to be hard to knock off the top. Shhh, Easton, go sit down until next year.

Matthew Knies	Vitals
Age as of July 1	21.7
Position	LW
Height	6'3"
Weight (lbs)	217
Shoots	L
Draft Year	2021
Draft Number	57

The Player

I don't want to tip over into a hagiography on Knies. When Matthews topped this list, he was self-evident. It was difficult to find anything to say about him other than 😍.

Knies is more complex because he isn't nearly perfect. He's just a mortal man. It's not an insult to him to notice his imperfections mixed in with what makes him both very good and very fun to watch.

Back in the old days of 2022, there were a lot of people who didn't believe Knies would amount to much. He got votes as low at 5, and then last year he was first in everyone's estimation. I spent the 2022 article making a case for his game and its value because he isn't sick hands and points producer extraordinaire. Those of us who really bought in on him as a prospect back in 2022 were constantly having to caution that while we loved him, loved his game, he wasn't a goal producer.

Scouts of his NCAA play would tell you about his corner work, and not just his ability, but his commitment to it. He likes board battles, he thinks they're the point of hockey. The word of the day this year around Leafs prospects is motor. Fraser Minten has a motor, Easton Cowan has patented a high-end motor, but before they were noticed for their drive, ambition, commitment to the full game and just joie de vivre on the ice, there was Matt Knies motoring all over the damn place.

However, an engine is only as good as the driver. And this is where Knies has a bit of weak spot. In 2022 when I was about the most optimistic about Knies that you could be, I thought he'd be hitting the AHL for a year. He didn't, and he didn't because he is physically mature, which gives him to power to make rapid crossovers in the offensive zone, to play along the boards the same way he did in the NCAA and to skate better than everyone claimed. It was impossible for the Leafs to not play him even with his waiver exemption, and that NHL season didn't harm him, but he's now got the unenviable job of refining some of the aspects of his game he's weak at while in the NHL.

And yes, he has weak spots. Well, he has one, really.

Considering he's only 22, and the NHL season we're talking about was his age 21 year, he is outstanding for a winger at defensive effort and the impacts of that effort. He's already providing more than expected value in that area.

Knies is also very good at offensive activity right at the crucial point of a cycle. Not his own shot necessarily – he scored 15 goals on 15 Expected Goals last year, marking that season as one of league-average shooting. His shot rate is very low, lower than almost all forwards on the Leafs and several defencemen, and this is concerning. Generally players shoot how and when they shoot and that doesn't change much, but I'll hold off marking this out as his normal pattern because he was playing various roles on the Leafs, both top line winger and third-line energy line guy.

He has always played with much more gifted shooters, and he fits his game to the people he's with, so it's not surprising his shot rate is so low, but last year was, frankly, too low for a top-six player.

The meaningful problem with Knies' season last year is his impact on offence. This does not mean his personal shot, his "finishing", his points or his assists. This is about the full picture of traversing the neutral zone, gaining the offensive zone, doing that with control, maintaining possession, getting the puck to someone in scoring position and generating quality scoring chances. His impacts on that system – the underlying system that gives you goals – are very poor. Replacement level player poor.

I can't help but say this bluntly: most people have been using their prospect goggles on full rose tint when they watch Knies. He is outstandingly entertaining, and he brings a style of hockey that fits really well next to the speed and skill and intensely intelligent offensive players that are already on the team.

I'm going to quote my guy again, Fraser Minten:

The way hockey is played for the majority of people, I think it’s really hard to make it as a super skilled guy, and most teams already have these guys.

If I want to carve my way into that [Leafs] lineup at some point, it will be based on work ethic and playing hard, and getting to those areas and finding ways to battle pucks into the net and win battles, disrupt on the forecheck, work hard defensively.

He's describing himself there, but also Cowan and Knies. They are all distinct individuals who are going to turn on the motor and execute playing hard in their unique ways, but they are three of a kind trying to carve out the best spot they can next to those guys the Leafs already have.

For Knies, he's made an outstanding start for a player so young. But the job of growing the areas he needs to grow, while competing for a spot in the lineup, while trying to make the case for a top-six role while likely playing on the third line is a tough job.

He does not shy away from tough jobs. He likes them.

The Votes

The vote for Knies has not been unanimous, and I did vote for Easton Cowan over Knies. But it's close to a toss up even in my own mind between those two.

Voter	Vote
Cathy	2
Brian	1
Species	1
Adam	1
Hardev	1
dhammm	1
Cameron S	1
Hound Line	2
brysplace	2
Catch-67	1
Sclodiggity	1
shinson93	1
The Bag	1
Zone Entry	1
Weighted Average	1.21
Highest Vote	1
Lowest Vote	2

No one had Knies lower than two, so even radicals who put someone else first recognize his status. And with the exception of what can be taken as unfinished ballots, no one in the Community Vote put him lower either. Wait... looks like one person had him third.

The Opinions

dhammm: For my Christmas gift to myself I bought his jersey.

Sclodiggity: With 35 points last year, I’m not sure he was an ideal top line winger but at 21 years old, he certainly looks like he’ll grow into that role. He’s looking like an extremely safe bet to forecast as a 60+ point winger (or better?) which on this list warrants the top spot. I gave some considerations to Cowan for #1 who may top out as a higher end offensive player but Knies certainty and high floor made him my choice.

shinson93: Cowan might overtake him before he ages out, but watching Knies progression since the USHL days has given me lots of satisfaction. He’s the prospect I would be most upset about losing. It also keeps the streak of an American being at top of Canada’s team (and hopefully making Don Cherry mad).

Cameron S: Knies got an opportunity last season and ran with it.While having a bit of a slump mid season, was unbelievable in the playoffs both last year and this year, something the Leafs are desperate for. Examples of this are when he saved a goal just before the Leafs made their massive comeback in game 4 vs TBL last year, and winning in OT to force a game 7 this year vs Boston and not letting himself or his teammates get pushed around, Knies is an all around player and shows up when it matters most. If he becomes more consistent I think he could become a solid 1/2LW for the Leafs for many years to come.

Hound Line: You saw him all year; he's great. He can do everything you could ask for from a complimentary player. Next step is exerting his will on the game more often. He's got the skill and strength to do it.

Hardev: Another player that does things to improve outcomes not just for himself but for his teammates. His work in the slot to create a gap, or dangle into clear ice, or force his way to where he needs to be is impressive. As is his ability to choose teammates that are going to the net, or going to areas that make it harder for the defense to handle. The other team can't relax with him on the ice, not because of his pure individual ability, but because he's always making forward progress on the ice. The way he plays hockey is reliable, I wish we had four of him. He makes me excited for the coming season.

Brian: You know, what I was going to say about Knies is what Cathy already covered. He has enough of all those elements to his game that coaches love and want to play – the work ethic, physical play, forechecking, defensive responsibility, etc – but what was always going to limit his overall impact was the limit to his offensive skills. He'll still be able to have a long NHL career as he was last year, but if you wanted him to turn into the next Zach Hyman (that's Hyman as he was with the Leafs, not since he moved to Edmonton) then he needed to still make some significant improvements in the skill areas of his game, and learn how to use his skills to help facilitate the offense of his line rather than getting in the way of it.

Your turn to talk about the number one "prospect" on the Maple Leafs.

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