2024 T25U25: Ben Danford is #5

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When Danford was taken with Toronto's first round pick in this summer's draft, it was the first time the Leafs had taken a defenseman with their top pick since Rasmus Sandin in 2018. Maybe it's because Toronto's defense, both in the NHL and in their prospect pool, has been a hot button topic for the past couple of years and really ramped up this season – but the fact that Danford debuted at #5 is noteworthy. By contrast, Cowan debuted at 10th, Minten at 8th, Knies at 10th, and you have to go back to Rodion Amirov (sigh...) debuting at #6 in 2020 to find someone ranked so high.

So why did Danford wind up being ranked so high when he was only just drafted?

Ben Danford	Vitals
Age as of July 1	18.4
Position	RD
Height	6'1"
Weight (lbs)	188
Shoots	R
Draft Year	2024
Draft Number	31

The Player

There's been a lot written about Danford already. I took a stab at it after re-watching his games from last season – you can read that profile to get caught up on my thoughts:

There's also this in-depth breakdown on Danford's game by Elite Prospects here:

For those who don't subscribe to EP Rinkside, here's the TL;DR:

Danford was marked as one of the top defensive defensemen in the draft by several scouts. Specifically, he was given top grades for his high end skating, stick work, gap control, positioning, intelligence, attention to detail, physical play, and anything else you can think of that contributes to being good defensively. He was also picked by OHL coaches as the top defender in his conference, and his tracking data backs all that up. There is basically no doubt that he can be an effective defender at higher levels, including at successfully retrieving pucks on dump ins and exiting the zone defensive with control.

On the offensive side, his point production is low for a higher end defense prospect. Scouts didn't his playmaking or shooting, or his play in the offensive zone. He got noted as having consistency and turnover issues when trying to make offensive plays. The offensive side of his game is where the big question mark comes in.

Mind you, there are some scouts and scouting outlets who think he showed a lot of improvement in this area and that, even before, his offensive upside was higher than his points were indicating. This includes the likes of Elite Prospects, who successfully called Noah Chadwick's production breakout, and McKeen's Scouting whose director was interviewed by Kyle Cushman about Danford – video posted below.

Ben Danford clips highlighting his NHL elements: Rush defence, physicality, retrievals, and some playmaking.

Standout ability is initiating and absorbing contact on the wall and then making a play under pressure. Seems so simple, but it's a rare ability. pic.twitter.com/ZTvunpUhcL
— Mitchell Brown (@MitchLBrown) June 29, 2024

The Votes

I personally ranked Danford at 5th, which was right on the money for his final result. My reasoning is simple: I think Danford has an easier path to becoming a real impact defenseman in the NHL, and I can fully buy his projection as a second pair guy. If his offense doesn't pan out, his defensive upside could still be good enough for him to reach those heights.

Here's what the other voters thought:

Voter	Vote
Cathy	4
Brian	5
Species	6
Adam	5
Hardev	5
dhammm	7
Cameron S	8
Hound Line	8
brysplace	6
Catch-67	6
Sclodiggity	7
shinson93	3
The Bag	3
Zone Entry	4
Weighted Average	5.5
Highest Vote	3
Lowest Vote	8

Honestly I find any of these votes as reasonable. You could convince me to have Danford at 3rd or 8th, and I'd understand why. For me, it's just that I am more reasonably certain about his upside, even at his age, than I am about older guys that already seem very certain in their NHL capability – like Nick Robertson, for example.

The Opinions

Here's what the other voters had to say:

dhammm: My ranking of Ben Danford is more about my esteem for Wes Clark and some of the trademarks we've seen in how the Leafs have drafted under him. They said he was the target all along (cap), and if the guy who seemed to bloom in the playoffs, whose puck skills came on as the season went along, is who Danford really is, then I can imagine a kind of Cowan D+1 hype campaign coming. I got burned last year when all the signs were there for Cowan, and my ranking of Danford is me not wanting to be burned again.

Sclodiggity: I had Danford at 7th as he seems like a likely but not certain 3rd/4th defenceman. If he reaches his potential, that’ll be a fine pick and worthy of his T25 spot but this lofty ranking is more reflective of a weaker list and how well the “improve late in the year” strategy worked with Cowan. Add in a little 1st round pick hype and he may be a little inflated in his ranking given his actual hockey achievements.

shinson93: Starting from the idea that most NHL players come from the first couple rounds, I find it hard to drop a first round pick below anyone picked much later in the draft without a pretty strong argument otherwise. That being said, Danford also fills a lot of boxes for what makes for an everyday defender at the next levels, so it’s not a stretch to be near the top.

Cameron S: I haven’t seen a ton of Danford other than his OHL finals appearance vs London and some development camp highlights, but just him being a solid piece of the team who made the finals coupled with him being a first round pick gives me a lot of confidence in Danford. From what I’ve read I’ve only seen positive things said about him by scouts and spectators alike.

The Bag: My reasoning for having Danford so high is simple. Last year I had Cowan 6th (ahead of the official ranking) and that was a mistake. Given where Danford was taken in the draft, and learning from my previous mistake, there were only two questions I felt I needed to answer: 1) Has Minten done enough to warrant ranking ahead of the latest 1st round pick? I decided that he hadn’t; others likely disagree. 2) Is Robertson better than he’s shown in the NHL (occasional depth contributor)? Without spoiling too much, I like Danford’s chances at more meaningful NHL success.

So what do you all think? Is 5th too high a ranking for a guy that was just drafted, and just barely inside the first round? Or do you think he should have cracked the top 3?

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